Tornado Warning 9, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA
255 PM CDT MON APR 17 1995

I HAVE KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THE EVENING.  STORMS WILL LIKELY RACE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH ACROSS
OKLAHOMA.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH AREAS THAT RECEIVED 1 TO 2
INCH RAINFALLS YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT.  ADDITIONALLY, WHEN THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES EAST LATER THIS EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IS LIKELY FOR THE SAME AREA.  (REFER TO SHORT TERM FORECASTS AND
THE OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR PRESENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
DISCUSSIONS).

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO FAST WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SYSTEM, OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE INFORMATION INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE
SURFACE FRONT THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  WITH RAPDILY FALLING PRESSURES
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS, THE EXPECTED INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE LOW JUSTIFIES
INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.  MY TIMING PLACES
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF I-35 THROUGH THE STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
RAPID CLEARING AND DRYING SHOULD SHORTLY FOLLOW ITS PASSAGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY HAS SOME SIMILAR
CHARACTERISTICS TO THE ONE TODAY.  THIS TIMING REFLECTS THE FACT THAT
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE AVN HAVE BEEN TO QUICK TO MOVE IT THROUGH.
I WILL PUSH BACK THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR EASTERN ZONES UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

HBR   51  71  45  71 / 60  0   0   20
OKC   56  74  49  73 / 70  0   0   0
SPS   57  76  51  75 / 70  0   0   20
GAG   48  67  40  67 / 30  0   0   0
PNC   49  69  42  67 / 70  0   0   0
DUA   58  76  52  75 / 70  10  0   0

.OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN OKLAHOMA FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A CHEYENE TO
MEDFORD LINE AND WEST OF A SEMINOLE TO MARIETTA LINE FOR THIS EVENING.
.TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ZONES 86, 89, 90.

WR

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-181200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 AM CDT MON APR 17 1995

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AS WELL AS WESTERN... CENTRAL...AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS INCLUDES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...

A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST BAYLOR
COUNTY TO NORTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. IN THE COOL AIR TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONT LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WINDS.

A DEVELOPING DRYLINE WAS INTENSIFYING IN THE AREA FROM
SCURRY...HOWARD...TO GLASSCOCK COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THIS AREA AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO
THE 80S. AS THIS DRYLINE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FIRE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE INSTABILITY AND WIND PROFILE HERE IS CONDUCIVE TO
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...WITH SOME TORNADIC STORMS POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER GROUPS IN NORTH TEXAS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
...SHOULD MAINTAIN A HIGH STATE OF READINESS THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS IN
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE READT FOR ACTIVATION THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT ESTPECIALLY IN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING TORNADOES.

PURPURA

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-181200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TIME...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT MON APR 17 1995

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AS WELL AS WESTERN... CENTRAL...AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS INCLUDES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...

A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST BAYLOR
COUNTY TO NORTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. IN THE COOL AIR TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONT LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG WINDS.

A DEVELOPING DRYLINE WAS INTENSIFYING IN THE AREA FROM
SCURRY...HOWARD...TO GLASSCOCK COUNTIES IN WEST TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THIS AREA AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO
THE 80S. AS THIS DRYLINE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FIRE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE INSTABILITY AND WIND PROFILE HERE IS CONDUCIVE TO
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...WITH SOME TORNADIC STORMS POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER GROUPS IN NORTH TEXAS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
...SHOULD MAINTAIN A HIGH STATE OF READINESS THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTERS IN
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

IT SHOULjD BE EMPHASIZED THAT ESPECIALLY IN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING TORNADOES.

PURPURA

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
230 PM CDT MON APR 17 1995

TIME             COUNTY           EVENT

APPROX. 240 AM   CARTER           LIGHTNING STRIKE AND RESULTING FIRE
                                  DID $7500.00 IN DAMAGE TO MOTEL IN
                                  ARDMORE
PM

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
410 PM CDT MON APR 17 1995

...DELAYED REPORTS FROM SUNDAY APRIL 16TH...

TIME/DATE        COUNTY           EVENT

845 PM/16TH      JEFFERSON OK     QUARTER SIZE HAIL 2 MILES E OF
                                  RINGLING

845 PM/16TH      CARTER OK        QUARTER SIZE HAIL 9 MILES W OF WILSON

850 PM/16TH      PAYNE OK         NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN STILLWATER

922 PM/16TH      CARTER OK        3/4 INCH HAIL JUST N OF ARDMORE

935 PM/16TH      MURRAY OK        NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND 50 MPH WINDS 4
                                  MILES W OF DAVIS

940 PM/16TH      CARTER OK        NICKEL SIZE HAIL 4 MILES E OF ARDMORE

945 PM/16TH      CARTER OK        4.5 MILES NORTH OF LONE GROVE: 3 BARNS
                                  AND A WELLHOUSE BLOWN AWAY; HALF OF A
                                  ROOF GONE ON ONE HOUSE; SLIGHT
                                  STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO 3 OTHER HOUSES.

1029 PM/16TH     JOHNSTON OK      3/4 INCH HAIL 4 MILES E OF TISHIMINGO

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