Tornado Warning 48, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA
320 PM CDT WED MAY 17 1995

IN GENL WL RIDE WITH GUID NMBRS BYD 1ST PD AS ATTN FOCUSED SQUARELY ON
SVR WX POTL IN 1ST PD. SFC LOW RIDING NEWD ALG QSTNRY FNT AND STG DRY
PUNCH NEWD FM SWRN OK GIVES POTENT SVR WX SCENARIO FOR PTNS NRN/NERN OK
THIS EVE. DRYLN EXPCD TO DRIVE EWD THRU FCST AREA THIS EVE FOLLOWED BY
CDFNT WRAPPING SEWD BHD SFC LOW. LOW CLDS LKLY TO FOLLOW CDFNT ACRS NRN
ZNS WITH LESSER CHC OF WRAPARND CLDS TNGT IN RED RVR COUNTIES. EXPC STG
NWLY WNDS LATER TNGT INTO EARLY THU AS SFC LOW SPINS UP, WITH STGST WNDS
IN N CNTRL OK ZNS. DMSHG WNDS AND RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WX THEN EXPCD INTO
SAT BFR RTN FLOW SETS UP NXT CHC OF CONVCTN ON SUN. MLB

HBR   55  72  49  81 / 20  10  0   0
OKC   55  71  50  78 / 20  10  0   0
SPS   56  75  51  82 / 10  10  0   0
GAG   51  69  46  75 / 30  10  0   10
PNC   54  66  46  75 / 50  10  0   0
DUA   60  75  51  77 / 40  10  0   0

.OKC...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-181200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 17 1995

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM SEMINOLE TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO KINGFISHER TO ENID TO BRAMAN. THERE
ALSO IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE HIGH RISK AREA... AND EAST OF A LINE FROM RINGLING TO
WATONGA TO CHEROKEE.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION IN THE HIGH RISK AREA... WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TORNADOES. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF A
SURFACE LOW CENTERED WEST OF KINGFISHER AT MIDDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD
OF IT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO
EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRY LINE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

WINDS ALOFT AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS... CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
DAMAGING TORNADOES... VERY LARGE HAIL... LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAIN... AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS. THE RISK WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE HIGH RISK AREA... BUT MAY EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

DRIER AIR BEHIND THE DRY LINE WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW AND DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BY NIGHTFALL... WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR OVERSPREADING ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER DARK. HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER MAY
LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS... ESPECIALLY THOSE
WITHIN THE HIGH RISK AREA... ARE STRON(GLY ENCOURAGED TO MAINTAIN A HIGH
STATE OF READINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION AT ANY
TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MLB