Severe Thunderstorm Warning 685, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
310 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 1995

SHORT TERM (TNGT)...
MCS FM LAST NGT DID A NMBR ON LOW LVL WND/MSTR FIELDS ACRS MUCH OF FCST
AREA. TEMP-WISE, RECOVERY HAS BEEN RPD UNDER LATE JUL SUN, BUT LL WNDS
AND MSTR FIELDS RMN POORLY ORGANIZED. UNSEASONABLY STG SHTWV APCHG AREA
FM W PROMISES AN ENCORE TNGT, BUT LOCN OF INIT DVLPMT OF SFC-BASED
CONVCTN THIS AFTN OR EVE SHUD DEPEND MSTLY ON WHERE SFC BNDRYS SET UP.
DVLPG CU NE OF AMA AND CONVCTN NR DDC ARE GOOD CANDIDATES. STILL FEEL
THAT ORGANIZED CONVCTN AND SGFNT SVR WX ARE LKLY THIS EVE CNSDRG
STRENGTH OF MID/UPR FORCING, VERT SHEAR, AND WIND FIELDS. BUT ATTM, WE
RMN UNCERTAIN OF WHERE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS WL BE. EVOLUTION OF LL
MESOSCALE FEATURES WL BE THE KEY THIS AFTN AND EVE. WL GO WITH POPS MUCH
AS THEY WERE IN PREV FCSTS, I.E. IN GOOD CHC CAT. ALTHO ORGANIZED
CONVCTN LKLY, LOCN AND TIMING ARE STILL TOO MUCH IN QSTN TO FOCUS HIER
POPS ATTM. WL MENTION SVR AND HVY RAIN POTL IN MOST AREAS. LAST-MINUTE
ADJUSTMENTS PSBL (LKLY, ACTUALLY) PENDING DVLPMTS OVR NXT HR OR SO.

LONGER TERM (MON THRU TUE)...
AFT TNGT, ALL BETS ARE OFF AS MESOSCALE DVLPMTS TNGT ARE LKLY TO RESULT
IN BIG DIFFS BTWN MDL-FCST SCENARIOS AND REAL ATMOS. GENL TREND IS TWD
WKR UPR WNDS (I.E. MORE TYPICAL FOR TIME OF YR), MORE DOMINANT SLY LL
FLOW, TROFFING ALG HI PLAINS, AND WKNG OF CNTRL PLAINS FNTL ZN. THUS,
TREND OF FCST WL BE BACK TWD CLIMATOLOGY, WITH DECRG CHCS OF ORGANIZED,
WDSPRD TSTMS. HOWVR, WNDS ALF WL RMN FAIRLY STG ACRS CNTRL PLAINS, AND
POTL WL CONT FOR MCS-TYPE DVLPMT MNLY TO OUR N WHICH CUD SEND LL BNDRYS
SWD INTO FCST AREA. WL CONT POPS IN MST AREAS THRU TUE, WITH HIER NMBRS
IN NRN ZNS AND AT NGT BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND BETTER FORCING UP N. MDT
TO STG INSTBY WL CONT ACRS AREA WITH FCST CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG DURG MAX
HTG, WHILE CAP IS EXPCD TO RMN WK - ESPLY ACRS N. ALTHO WND FIELDS EXPCD
TO WKN WITH TIME, SHEAR WL RMN STG ENUF TO SUPPORT SVR POTL.

EXTDD PD (WED THRU FRI)...
TREND IS TWD DVLPMT OF AN UPR HI OVR SRN RCKYS/4 CRNRS AREA WITH RDG EWD
ACRS SRN OK OR NRN TX. SFC LOW FCST TO RMN INVOF CNTRL/SRN HI PLAINS
AREA WITH FNT BCMG REESTBLSHD EWD FM LOW, ALTHO EXACT LOCN OF BOTH LOW
AND FNT WL BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IMPLSS MOVING OVR TOP OF UPR HI WL
ENCOUNTER WNW TO NWLY FLOW ALF OVR CNTRL US. THUS POTL WL EXIST FOR
CONVCTN TO FIRE NR OR N OF FNTL ZONE AND ROLL SEWD INTO AREA AS MNLY
NOCTURNAL CONVCTN ON ANY OF THE 3 DAYS. AGN, BEST CHCS AL BE ACRS NRN
ZNS WITH LESSER CHCS ALG RED RVR DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPR RDG. RDGG ALF
ALSO ARGUES FOR AN UPWD TREND IN TEMPS.

FCSTID = 24

OKC   70  93  71  95 /  50  30  20  20
HBR   69  94  70  97 /P  50  30  20  20
SPS   73  97  74  99 /  50  30  20  20
GAG   67  93  68  96 /  40  30  20  30
PNC   71  94  72  95 /  50  30  20  20
DUA   73  95  75  97 /  50  30  20  20

.OK...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

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LOCAL STORM REPORT...DELAYED REPORT FROM THE MORNING OF 7/23/95
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
305 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 1995

TIME(CDT)   .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
DATE        ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1245 AM         NOBLE                 OK   TREE LIMB 10 INCHES IN
7/23/95         CLEVELAND                  DIAMETER FROM A SILVER MAPLE
                                           TREE DOWNED.  WIND ESTIMATE
                                           UNKN.

SN

LOCAL STORM REPORT...DELAYED REPORT FROM THE MORNING OF 7/23/95
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
305 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 1995

TIME(CDT)   .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
DATE        ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1245 AM         NOBLE                 OK   TREE LIMB 10 INCHES IN
7/23/95         CLEVELAND                  DIAMETER FROM A SILVER MAPLE
                                           TREE DOWNED.  WIND ESTIMA2TE
                                           UNKN.

SN