Severe Thunderstorm Warning 512, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
405 PM CDT THU JUN 8 1995

SVR TSTMS HAVE DVLPD TO THE WEST OF THE FA THIS AFTN IN THE VCNTY OF THE
DRYLINE AND CDFNT INTERSECTION. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AIDED BY IMPULSE
SHOWG UP ON WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY MOVING FROM SE NM INTO W TX. VERY
UNSTABLE AMS AHD OF THE FNT AND DRY LINE WITH SFC BASED LIS OF -10 TO
-12. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN ROTATG STG S/W THRU THE BASE OF THE UPR TROF
THEN NEWD INTO SERN CO BY 12Z. IN RESPONSE TO THIS MODELS TRY TO DVLP
SFC LO IN NWRN KS WITH FNTL BNDRY LIFTING N OF FA. THINK THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE AND ONGOING CONVECTION MAY HELP TO KEEP BNDRY FRTHR S. IF BNDRY
MAINTAINS ITSELF OVER THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE FA THIS WUD PUT THIS AREA
UNDER THE GUN FOR HVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. WILL MENTION LCL HVY RAIN IN
NRN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. TSTM THRT TO CONT INTO FRIDAY AS DRY LINE
PUSHES INTO WRN OK DURG THE DAY. CDFNT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SAT WITH UPR TROF STILL LAGGING TO THE WEST SO WILL KEEP POP REL HI MOST
AREAS.

FCSTID =  02
OKC   69  87  68  85 /  30  40  40  40
HBR   67  90  65  85 /  40  40  30  20
SPS   72  92  68  88 /  30  40  40  40
GAG   62  85  57  78 /  70  20  20  10
PNC N  65  86  69  84 /  70  40  40  30
DUA   75  89  74  89 /  10  20  30  40

.OK...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-090000-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1255 PM CDT THU JUN 8 1995

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
   ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.  ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

SEVERAL BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  A DRYLINE IN FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THE DRYLINE. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR PRESENT
AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL EHANCEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT AS WELL
AS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE AND FRONT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY
AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CS

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-090000-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1255 PM CDT THU JUN 8 1995

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
   ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THE WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.  ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

SEVERAL BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  A DRYLINE IN FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THE DRYLINE. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA
CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR PRESENT
AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER AIR LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL EHANCEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT AS WELL
AS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE AND FRONT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY
AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CS