Severe Thunderstorm Warning 494, NWS Norman, OK

FPUS3 KOKC 052039
AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA
340 PM CDT MON JUN 5 1995

NOT MUCH TIME TO GET FANCY WITH FCST DISC.  MOST OF THE STMS IN SERN OK
SHOULD BE OUT OF THAT AREA BY THE TIME THE ZFP TAKES EFFECT...SO WL NOT
MAKE A BIG DEAL OUT OF THEM IN THE FCST.  BLV MOST LKLY AREA OF BOTH
PCPN AND SVR WX WL ONCE AGAIN BE NR THE RED RVR TNGT.  ON TUE...S/W RDG
MOVS OVR THE AREA AND LOW/MID LVLS WRM SIGNIFICANTLY.  NGM GOES SO FAR
AS TO PUT A 27 DEG H8 ISOTHERM ACRS WRN OK TMRW AFTN.  ETA A BIT COOLER
AND PROB MORE CORRECT.  GIVEN THAT...AND STG CAP...WOULD XPCT TO TRADE
SVR WX FOR HOT TEMPS TMRW.  DWNSLOPE WNDS XPCTD IN WRN ZNS...SO MID 90S
A GOOD PSBLTY THERE.  HAVE GONE ABV GDNC AS A RSLT ACRS MUCH OF THE FA.

WL PUT POPS BACK IN ON WED AS UPR FLOW RTNS TO SWLY AND LOW LVL MSTR
NEVER REALLY GOES AWAY.  EXTDD FCST IS SIMPLY A COPY OF NATL GDNC SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN NO TIME TO LOOK AT ANY MED RANGE MODEL DATA.

CONSIDERED FF WATCH FOR ALL BUT NRN 2 TIERS OF ZNS...BUT HAVE HELD OFF
SINCE IT APPEARS THAT STMS WL PRBLY MOVE FAST ENUF TO PREVENT WDSPD HVY
PCPN.  ONE PRBLM THO IS THAT FF GDNC IN PTS OF CNTRL AND W CNTRL OK IS
SO LOW THAT MODT SHWRS COULD ALMOST CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.  WL UPDATE
FCST AND ADD FF WATCH THIS EVE IF ORGANIZED PCPN THREATENS THOSE AREAS
WITH LOW TOLERANCE TO RNFL.

1ST PD POPS WL BE ADJUSTED JUST BFR ZFP ISSUANCE TIME.  THE FOLLOWING
NUMBERS ARE CRNT RUFF ESTIMATE ONLY.

ZFP AND OTHER FCSTS MAY BE A FEW MINS LATE.

FCSTID=23=RS
HBR   63  96  67  90 / 60  10  10  20
OKC   64  92  68  90 / 50  10  10  20
SPS   67  96  70  92 / 70  10  0   20
GAG   60  95  64  84 / 40  10  10  20
PNC   65  90  69  90 / 40  10  10  20
DUA   68  89  72  93 / 70  30  0   20

.OKC...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

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