Severe Thunderstorm Warning 445, NWS Norman, OK

FPUS3 KOKC 042030
AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 1995

RATHER BUSY DAY TDA...AND TNGT LOOKS MUCH THE SAME AS SVR WX IS LKLY
ACRS AT LEAST THE SWRN 1/4 OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVE...AND PROB ACRS THE
RMNDR OF THE AREA TNGT.  HVY RNFL IS LKLY ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA...XCPT
THE FAR SE.  HAVE ADDED 3 NEW ZNS TO THE PREV WATCH AREA...TX ZNS
84..87..AND 90...DUE TO HVY RNFL THIS AFTN AND MARGINALLY LOW FF GDNC.
XPCT THE HVIEST RNFL TO BE NR THE RED RVR...SPCLY THE WRN PT...NR WHERE
OUTFLOW BNDRY FM LAST NGTS CONVECTION CAME TO REST AND WHERE SVR STMS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING.  OMITTED ZNS 86..88..AND 89 FM FFA DUE TO HIGH FF
GDNC AND RELATIVELY LGT OVRNGT RN...BUT EVEN THESE ZNS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED LATER IF RNFL IS MUCH HVIER THAN XPCTD.

TMRW LOOKS LIKE AN ALL-OR-NOTHING SITN.  STRENGTHENING CAP MAY PREVENT
ANY MAJOR STRM OUTBRK...BUT GRTR FCST HELICITY AND MODERATE CAPES WOULD
PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT EVEN MORE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS THAN TDA/TNGT.
IT IS QUITE PSBL THAT SFC CNVRGNC ALG WHATEVER OUTFLO BNDRYS ARE ARND
THEN WL BE ENUF TO OVERCOME THE CAP....

SINCE FAN/FWC TEMP GDNC IS VERY SIMILAR TO PREV FCST...HAVE NOT STRAYED
MORE THAN A CPL OF DEG FM GDNC.

1ST PD POPS SUBJECT TO LAST-SECOND REVIEW AND CHGS BASED ON PCPN TRENDS
AT ISSUANCE TIME....

FCSTID=23=RS
HBR   64  85  65  92 / 100 50  30  20
OKC   65  83  66  88 / 70  40  40  20
SPS   66  87  67  92 / 60  40  30  20
GAG   63  83  63  91 / 80  30  30  10
PNC   64  83  66  89 / 90  30  40  30
DUA   67  86  69  87 / 30  20  20  20

.OKC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TNGT...ZNS 14>42..44>46..50.
.TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TNGT...ZNS 83>85..87..90.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 4 1995

TIME(CDT)   .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
DATE        ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1020 AM        KNOX CITY             TX     21/2 INCH HAIL NORTH SIDE OF
06/4/95         KNOX                        KNOX CITY.

1040 AM        RHINELAND             TX     1 INCH HAIL IN RHINELAND.
06/4/95         KNOX

J

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 4 1995

TIME(CDT)   .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
DATE        ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1020 ATM        KNOX CITY             TX     21/2 INCH HAIL NORTH SIDE OF
06/4/95         KNOX                        KNOX CITY.

1040 AM        RHINELAND             TX     1 INCH HAIL IN RHINELAND.
06/4/95         KNOX

J

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-051100-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE
MODERATE RISK AREA IS LOCATED WEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA...TO OKLAHOMA
CITY...TO MARIETTA. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF RAIN-COOLED AIR FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LIES NEAR THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OR MOVE SLOWLY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND ALSO NEAR A DRY LINE
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST
INTO OKLAHOMA.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
WINDS WHICH VARY FROM SOUTHEAST NEAR THE GROUND TO SOUTHWEST IN
MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ONE-HALF OF
OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO OCCUR AND FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

BSC

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-051100-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE
MODERATE RISK AREA IS LOCATED WEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA...TO OKLAHOMA
CITY...TO MARIETTA. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF RAIN-COOLED AIR FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LIES NEAR THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OR MOVE SLOWLY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND ALSO NEAR A DRY LINE
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST
INTO OKLAHOMA.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
WINDS WHICH VARY FROM SOUTHEAST NEAR THE GROUND TO SOUTHWEST IN
MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ONE-HALF OF
OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO OCCUR AND FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

BSC

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 1995

TIME(CDT)   .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
DATE        ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1230 PM        HOLLIS                OK     SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS
06/4/95        HARMON               TORRIENTIAL RAIN WITH
                                            FLOODING ALL OVER THE AREA.

1255 PM        GRANITE               OK     HWY 6 SOUTH OF GRANITE
06/4/95        GREER                        WASHED OUT. WATER ALL AROUND
                                            THE AREA.

J

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 1995

TIME(CDT)   .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
DATE        ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1230 PM        HOLLIS                OK     SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS
06/4/95        HARMON               TORRIENTIAL RAIN WITH
                                            FLOODING ALL OVER THE AREA.

1255 PM        GRANITE               OK     HWY 6 SOUTH OF GRANITE
06/4/95        GREER                        WASHED OUT. WATER ALL AROUND
                                            THE AREA.

J