Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Norman, OK

FPUS3 KOKC 251036
AFDOKC
AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA
440 AM CST SAT MAR 25 1995

THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE TROUBLE. ALL PARAMETERS APR TO BE COMING TOGTHR FOR
MAJOR SVR OUTBREAK ACRS PTNS OF FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND TNGT. MDLS HV
SLOWED PROGRESS OF SHTWV PROGGED TO LIFT NEWD ACRS TX/OK FM PREV RUNS,
WTH TIMING NOW MORE OPTIMAL FOR AFTN/EVE FLAREUP ALG AND AHD OF DRYLN
WRN OK AND NRN TX. THERMODYNAMICS VRY FVBL WITH WM RDG PROGGED NWD ACRS
WRN TX AND LL MOIST AXIS POISED FRTHR E ACRS CNTR TX AND WRN OR CNTRL OK
THIS AFTN. SLY LLJ PROGGED AT 30-40KT THRU CNTRL/ERN OK WHILE WLY UPR
JET WITH 100KT MAX PUNCHES EWD OUT OF SRN NM INTO WRN TX. RESULTANT
SHEAR PROFILE GIVES FCST HELICITIES OF 150 UP TO OVR 400, DEPENDING ON
MDL AND AMT OF STORM DEVIATION. MDLS AGN APR TO UNDERESTIMATE AMT OF LL
MSTR RTN AND THEREFORE AMT OF INSTBY. ALTHO CRNT ELY COMPONENT OF BNDRY
LYR FLOW IS PULLING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO CNTRL/ERN OK, EXPC LL FLOW
TO VEER AND DEWPTS TO RISE FRTHR E LTR TDA AS SFC LOW BCMS ESTBLSHD
INVOF SWRN KS OR OK PNHDL. RESULTANT LL MSTR FEED CPLD WITH MID-LVL
COOLING BY EVE AND DRY PUNCH AT MID LVLS YIELDS EXPCD LIS OF -5 TO -9,
CAPES 1500-3000 J/KG, EHI OF 2-5, BRN 20-50, AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES
(H7-H5 DELTA T) OF 18-21 ACRS FCST AREA DURG AFTN.

EXPC DRYLN TO PUNCH EWD INTO WRN OK AND NCNTRL TX DURG AFTN, MOST LKLY
FRTHR E THAN MDL SFC PROGS, WITH CONVCTN DVLPG ALG/AHD OF IT. DRYLN
EXPCD TO CONT DRIVING EWD INTO CNTRL OK EARLY TNGT AND EVENTUALLY INTO
ERN OK BY SUN MRNG AS SFC LOW WINDS UP AND MOVS NEWD ACRS KS. WITH
INSTBY AND SHEAR EXPCD TO BE HIGHLY FVBL, WE ANTICIPATE SUPERCELL DVLPMT
THIS AFTN EVE FOLLOWED BY PSBL EVOLUTION INTO A SQLN OR MCS TNGT.

NUFF SAID. WE PLAN TO GO HIGH RISK ACRS TX ZNS AND WRN HLF OK IN
630AM TSTM OTLK. WL ALSO MENTION PSBL HVY RAINERS, ESPLY SERN ZNS TNGT.
OTRW WL SIMPLY GO WITH MOS TEMPS ON THIS ONE. WNDS LKLY TO KICK UP FM SW
BHD DRYLN IN SWRN/WRN ZNS LTR TDA, AND ACRS MUCH OF FCST AREA - ESPLY N
- ON SUN IN RESPONSE TO DVLPG KS LOW.   MLB

HBR   78  45  66  42 / 80  30  10  10
OKC   71  49  66  43 / 80  60  10  10
SPS   78  50  69  42 / 80  30  10  10
GAG   75  42  62  34 / 60  30  10  10
PNC   70  48  65  42 / 80  60  10  10
DUA   72  52  74  48 / 60  80  30  10

.OKC...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TDA ZNS 4>53 /ALL OF WRN/CNTRL/SERN OK/.
.TX...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES ZNS 83>90.

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-261200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
545 AM CST SAT MAR 25 1

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-261200-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
545 AM CST SAT MAR 25 1