Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Norman, OK

FPUS3 KOKC 012000
AFDOKC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
300 PM CDT THU JUN 1 1995

A FEW ISOLD TRW DVLPG THIS AFTN AS SFC HTG RELEASES INSTAB FM UNCAPPED
AMS. WL LET LAST MINUTE STLT/RADAR IMAGERY DICTATE 1ST PD POPS...BUT
ANYTHING THAT DOES DVLP WL LKLY DSPT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

OTRW...WX SHUD BE QUIET AS UPR RDG MOVS OVR AREA. WITH AMS REMAINING
MOIST...ISOLD TRW ALSO PSBL ON FRI AFTN. HWVR...WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
BNDRYS EXPCT PCPN TO BE TOO ISOLD FOR MENTN. BY FRI NGT...NEXT UPR LOW
MOVES ACRS SRN ROCKIES AND UPWARD FORCING BEGINS TO BRUSH SHARPENING
DRYLN IN ERN NM. ALL MDLS SHOW RICH MOIST AXIS ACRS PNHDLS AND ANY TRW
THAT DVLPS ALG DRYLN HAS A CHANCE OF MAKE IT INTO WRN OK BEFORE DAWN ON
SAT. WL BRING POPS EWD INTO CNTRL ZNS ON SAT BUT WL KEEP THEM IN THE
CHANCE CAT UNTIL UPR SYS GETS CLOSER ON SUN.   ..04..

GAG 54/85/59/80 1123    PNC 61/86/63/82 1112    HBR 60/88/63/83 1123
SPS 61/89/65/87 1112    OKC 61/84/65/82 1112    DUA 62/86/66/88 1112

.OKC...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-021130-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT THU JUN 1 1995

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MARIETTA TO PONCA CITY. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD FROM AN LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS MAY COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE THREAT AREA. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA COUNTIES. CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAS ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAINFALL TODAY...TOO LOW TO MENTION IN PUBLIC FORECASTS.  HOWEVER...IF
ISOLATED STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME OF THEM TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE.

NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA.  NO FOCUSING MECHANISM IS EVIDENT AND THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  THE ONLY FACTORS
FAVORING HAIL OR HIGH WINDS ARE THE RELATIVELY HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD
STAY INFORMED ON WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.

DGN

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-021130-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT THU JUN 1 1995

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MARIETTA TO PONCA CITY. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWARD FROM AN LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS MAY COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE THREAT AREA. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND MOST
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA COUNTIES. CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAS ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAINFALL TODAY...TOO LOW TO MENTION IN PUBLIC FORECASTS.  HOWEVER...IF
ISOLATED STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME OF THEM TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE.

NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA.  NO FOCUSING MECHANISM IS EVIDENT AND THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  THE ONLY FACTORS
FAVORING HAIL OR HIGH WINDS ARE THE RELATIVELY HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD
STAY INFORMED ON WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.

DGN