Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA
405 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 1995

LOOKS LIKE A CPL OF ROUGH DAYS COMING UP.  UPR SYS CONTS TO COIL ARND
ITSELF OUT W...AND GULF MSTR CONTS TO STREAM NWWD ACRS TX.  TROPICAL
CONNECTION IS ALSO IN PLACE.  BLV THAT WDSPD RN/TRW LKLY TDA AND TNGT
ACRS MOST OF THE FA.  MODELS PUT GRTST INSTAB AND LOW LVL MSTR CNVRGNC
IN SWRN ZNS THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE MOST LKLY
AREA FOR SVR WX THEN.  FARTHER E...THE COMBINATION OF ISENT LIFT AND
MODEST INSTAB SHOULD CAUSE FAIRLY PERSISTENT RN/TRW DURG THE DAY AND
INHIBIT SVR WX THRU TNGT.  NWRN ZNS SHOULD BE ON EDGE OF MAIN RN AREA
AND WL PUT LOWEST POPS THERE.  SVRL UPR IMPLSS SHOW UP ON WTR VPR IMGRY
WHIRLING ARND THE BIG UPR LOW.  THESE MAY WELL PROVIDE ANTHR EXCUSE FOR
LARGE SCALE TSTM DVLPMT TDA THRU SUN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE RGN.

WAS CONTEMPLATING A FF WCH FOR ABT THE SRN 1/3 OF FA FOR TNGT.  THE
UNCERTAINTY OF IF/WHERE HVY PCPN WL OCCUR TIPPED THE BALANCE AGAINST
ACTUALLY ISSUING IT.  DAY SHIFT CAN REEVALUATE THE SITN AND SEE IF IT IS
NEEDED THEN.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SITN WL NOT CHG VRY MUCH OVRNT AS
GULF FLOW CONTS...AIDED AT NGT BY STG LLJ.  HVY RNFL WL CONT TO BE A
PSBLTY...AND IN WRN ZNS THERE WL CONT TO BE A CHC OF SVR WX.

THE CHC OF SVR WX APPEARS HIEST ON SUN AS MAIN VORT MAX WHIPS OUT OF THE
SWRN STATES.  HI INSTAB AND LOTS OF MSTR ARE FCST TO RMN ACRS MOST OF
THE FA ON SUN.  THE UPR SYS SHOULD HELP NUDGE THE DRYLN E INTO THE WRN
PT OF THE FA...PROVIDING ESSENTIALLY EVERYTHING A SVR STM COULD EVER
WANT.  WOULD HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME CLRG BHD THE UPR SYS...AT LEAST
OF PCPN IF NOT CLDS... LATE SUN NGT AND MON.  THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED
BY QUICK LOOK AT NEW MRF.

FWC/FAN TEMP GDNC IS NICELY CONSISTENT WITH PREV FCSTS SO WL NOT WANDER
FAR FM IT.  WL GENLY GO ABV POP GDNC FOR 1ST 2 PDS.

FCSTID=23=RS
HBR   72  61  73  52 / 80  70  60  30
OKC   70  62  71  55 / 80  70  60  30
SPS   75  63  75  52 / 70  70  50  30
GAG   67  58  70  48 / 40  50  50  30
PNC   68  59  69  55 / 70  70  70  40
DUA   72  62  74  57 / 80  80  70  40

.OKC...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

OKZ004>0053-TXZ083>090-061730-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
630 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO TO CLINTON TO SEYMOUR TEXAS.  TO THE EAST OF
THE MODERATE RISK...A SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS EAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG INSTABILITY
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL COME FROM A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL STORM
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN STATES.

THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL
MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEVERE BEYOND I-35.  SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS AND
PREVENT SEVERE WEATHER FROM OCCURRING UNTIL TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE RISK AREA
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RS