Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA
340 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 1995

INTERESTING WX SCENARIO WL OCCUR OVR NXT 24-36 HRS OVR FA. AS OF
19Z...HAVE STG STORMS DEVELOPING OVR EXTREME WRN PART OF N TX...MAINLY
OVR KNOX AND FOARD COUNTIES. MID 60-LOW 70 DWPTS AND ADDED
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING OVR WRN N TX SHOULD KEEP STORMS
MOVG ACRS FA.

WL KEEP FFA GOING OVR PREV DESIGNATED AREAS TNGT SINCE IT APPRS FA WL
GET A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF PRECIP. THE FIRST STMS WL MOV THRU THIS
AFTN/ERLY EVENING AS S/W FM W TX MOVS OVR AREA...AND THE SECOND AREA WL
MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT WHEN MAIN UPR TROF AND DRYLINE MOV TWD AREA. ETA
ISETROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS CONTINUED UVM THRU 12Z SAT OVR MUCH OF
FA...WHILE REG SNDGS SHOW PWS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. FFG VALUES ALSO
REMAIN LOW...WITH MANY COUNTIES BLO 2.0 INCHES FOR 3-HR RNFL.

NGM/ETA SHOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM THAN AVN THRU 48 HRS.
WITH MAX H3 WINDS STILL ON WEST SIDE OF UPR TROF...WL TREND TWD SLOWER
MOVMT. ALL MODELS SHOW DRYSLOT/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TROF...SO WL BEGIN
CLEARING SAT AFTN FM SW TO NE BY SUN 12Z.

EXTND PD RETURNS TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THRU WED...WITH NXT SYSTM TO
MOV IN AFT 00Z THU. A FEW WK S/WS ARE SHOWN THRU EXTND...BUT LUKS TOO
DRY TO ADD PRECIP TO FIRST 2 DAYS OF EXTND ATTM. WL BRING SLG CHC POPS
INTO WEST ON WED...WITH GRAD WRMG TRND.

WL PROB KEEP DIURNAL TEMP RANGE LOWER THAN MOS ERN ZNS ON SAT. OTHERWISE
MOS LUKS OK.

FCST ID=17/MMT

FIRST GUESS NUMBERS
HBR   66  81  56  85 / 70  30  10  0
OKC   64  77  59  80 / 60  50  20  10
SPS   68  82  60  86 / 70  30  10  10
GAG   60  80  53  82 / 50  20  10  5
PNC   65  77  59  80 / 60  50  20  10
DUA   69  80  63  82 / 50  40  30  10

.OKC...FFA TNGT...OKZ014-016>048-050>052.
.TX...FFA TNGT...TXZ083-089-090.

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-262300-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE AREA IS
GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA OKLAHOMA TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EAST OF THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS.

EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON... A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT... A
RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL AIR REMAINED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ABOVE THIS SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS SOUTH WINDS WERE
BRINGING WARM... MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM MOIST AIR
RIDES UP OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. APPROACHES THE REGION. MEANWHILE...
INCREASINGLY MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

ELEWHERE... A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN FAR WEST TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AS WELL
AS THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS LEFT THE
GROUND SATURATED AND MANY CREEKS AND STREAMS FULL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE RISK AREA SHOULD STAY INFORMED ON THE LATEST
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
430 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 1995

TIME(CDT)   .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
DATE        ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1603   F       11 MILES SOUTH OF VERNON, TX   NICKEL-SIZE HAIL
5/26/95       WILBARGER

1500          GILLILAND                 TX   DIME-SIZE HAIL IN GILLILAND
5/26/95       KNOX

BZ