Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
230 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 1995

WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING...I NEED TO WRITE SHORT TERM FORECASTS
AS WELL AS WORK ON AFTERNOON PACKAGE. AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE AS
EXPECTED AND STORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING UP IN WESTERN ZONES AND MOVING
NE. I GENERALLY FOUND THE MODELS TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
HANDLING UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE PLAINS. TROF WILL START TO MOVE
E ON WED WITH MAIN SFC LOW AND VORT MAX SHIFTING TO THE UPPER MID-
WEST. THE AVN MODEL MISSED ONE IMPORTANT FEATURE...THE APPARENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING E ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AT THIS TIME. THE
NGM AND ETA MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE RW/TRW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. I WENT ABOVE THE LO MOS POPS
FOR TONIGHT...KEPT AT LEAST 50% POPS FOR WED...AND CHANCE POPS FOR
WED NIGHT AND THU. EVEN WITH BEST DYNAMICS TO OUR N ON THU..&.IT
SHOULD BE QUITE UNSTABLE AGAIN AS 850 THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WAS PROGD
ACROSS MUCH OF TENN AND OHIO VALLEYS. MOS TEMPS WERE CLOSE AND
REASONABLE. MY PRELIMINARY CCFS AND ZFM GRAPHIC AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

TG/10