Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
925 AM EDT MON JUN 26 1995

UPR LOW IS LOCATED OVR MO THIS MRNG WITH COLD POOL ALF BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO W/MID TN. BNA SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE AMS IS ALREADY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS MRNG. MODIFYING SOUNDING WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPR 60S DEPICTS A FAIRLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE FOR THIS AFTN WITH CAPES OF 2700 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES
OF -6 TO -8. THUS AMS WILL BE PRIMED FOR TRW DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDING
ALSO DEPICTED AN INVERTED V CHARACTERISTICS WITH WINDS ALOFT GENERALLY
PARRALLEL...SO DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE A CONCERN THIS AFTN/
EVENG. ALSO AS 500 MB 50 KNOT JET MOVES ACRS THE GLF COAST STATES...
WINDS ALF WILL STRENGTHEN AND PLACE FA UNDER FAVORED LEFT FRONT QUAD.

WBZ IS PROGGD TO BE NR 11,500 FT BY AFTN WHICH IS IN THE UPPER IN OF
THE SPECTRUM FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG UPDRAFTS
BELIEVE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.

PW AND K INDICES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AS WELL...BUT STORM MOTION OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS SHOULD LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS.

WILL CHG FCST WORDING TO SCT FOR THIS AFTN AND INCLUDE SOME POSSIBLY
SVR AS WELL. TEMP LOOKS GUD.

DH