Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
925 AM EDT MON JUN 26 1995

UPR LOW IS LOCATED OVR MO THIS MRNG WITH COLD POOL ALF BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO W/MID TN. BNA SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE AMS IS ALREADY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS MRNG. MODIFYING SOUNDING WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID 80S/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPR 60S DEPICTS A FAIRLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE FOR THIS AFTN WITH CAPES OF 2700 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES
OF -6 TO -8. THUS AMS WILL BE PRIMED FOR TRW DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDING
ALSO DEPICTED AN INVERTED V CHARACTERISTICS WITH WINDS ALOFT GENERALLY
PARRALLEL...SO DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE A CONCERN THIS AFTN/
EVENG. ALSO AS 500 MB 50 KNOT JET MOVES ACRS THE GLF COAST STATES...
WINDS ALF WILL STRENGTHEN AND PLACE FA UNDER FAVORED LEFT FRONT QUAD.

WBZ IS PROGGD TO BE NR 11,500 FT BY AFTN WHICH IS IN THE UPPER IN OF
THE SPECTRUM FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG UPDRAFTS
BELIEVE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.

PW AND K INDICES ARE FAIRLY HIGH AS WELL...BUT STORM MOTION OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS SHOULD LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS.

WILL CHG FCST WORDING TO SCT FOR THIS AFTN AND INCLUDE SOME POSSIBLY
SVR AS WELL. TEMP LOOKS GUD.

DH

TNZ012>018-034>047-066>074-083>087-099>102-262215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
1011 AM EDT MON JUN 26 1995

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST
   TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER MISSOURI WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.  AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT FORECAST OVER EAST
TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AT THE SAME TIME...THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE VOLUNTEER STATE WILL BE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE.
THE INSTABILITY OF THE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ALLOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MILES AN HOUR.

DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL.  ALSO...
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE AGAIN LIKELY
WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF
LOW LYING AREAS AND STREET FLOODING.

RESIDENTS ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THESE STORMS
AND STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

DH

TNZ012>018-034>047-066>074-083>087-099>102-262215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
1011 AM EDT MON JUN 26 1995

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST
   TENNESSEE AND THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER MISSOURI WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.  AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT FORECAST OVER EAST
TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AT THE SAME TIME...THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE VOLUNTEER STATE WILL BE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE.
THE INSTABILITY OF THE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ALLOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MILES AN HOUR.

DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL.  ALSO...
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE AGAIN LIKELY
WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS...WHICH MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF
LOW LYING AREAS AND STREET FLOODING.

RESIDENTS ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THESE STORMS
AND STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

DH