Severe Thunderstorm Warning 375, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
950 AM CST MON DEC 18 1995

14Z MAP PRES FALLS AND LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATE AN E-NE MOVEMENT
OF SFC LOW CURRENTLY ENTERING EXTREME SW LA WHICH PUTS THE SFC LOW
MOVING SOUTH OF THE ETA/NGM POSITIONS AND MOVING OVER CENTRAL MS INTO
NRN AL BY TUESDAY MORNING.  NGM AND ETA BOTH INDICATE DIFFLUENT
THICKNESS PATTERNS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY 00Z WHICH INDICATES
AGEOSTROPIC FORCING WILL STRENTHEN THE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND FAVOR REGENERATION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
IR SAT LOOP SHOWS VERY COLD TOPS WITH NEXT LINE OF TRW WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO SW AL AROUND 00Z-01Z AND WV LOOP SHOWS NICE DRY PUNCH MOVING
IN BEHIND.  FOR THE CURRENT TRW OVER AREA...KMOB RADAR INDICATES A
LINE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES ADVANCING EWD WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG AREA OF MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND WV LOOP INDICATES A WELL
DEFINED S/WAVE JUST ENTERING SW AL.  CURRENT TRW WILL CONTINUE EWD
THROUGH THE AFT AND CURRENT PACKAGE REFLECTS THIS WELL.  DECENT
HELICITY AND VEERING IN LOW LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL FROPA.
DRE..

ALZ051>064-501-FLZ001>006-506-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-181800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
525 AM CST MON DEC 18 1995

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
EAST OF THE LOW WILL SEND A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.

THE UNSTABLE AIR IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE WILL CREATE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ENCOMPASS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING BUT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR THE LATEST IN WEATHER INFORMATION.