Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
225 PM EDT FRI SEP 8 1995

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING TO EAST COAST AS GOMEX
UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS KICKED EASTWARD. LOOKING AT THE SEVERE THREAT
FIRST...MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ALOFT WITH ETA ABOUT -7
AND NGM A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. MODELS NOT LOOKING TO IMPRESSIVE
WITH MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH HOWEVER LOOKING AT H20 VAPOR LOOP...THERE IS
A PRETTY GOOD DARK BAND TRYING TO COME AT PENINSULA FROM YUCATAN
CHANNEL. WILL INTRODUCE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS/GUSTY WINDS FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS IMMINENT BOUNDARY COLLISION EVIDENT ON SATPIX
AND RADAR.

NOW FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HAVE COORD WITH MIA ON ISSUING FFA FOR
MY COASTAL COUNTIES...WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVING A FAIRLY HEALTHY
POUNDING OF RAINFALL. 24 HOUR STP PRODUCTS SHOWING 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS
EACH OF THE LAST 2 DAYS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...AND SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST AS WELL. FFG VALUES
REMAIN IN THE 1.0 TO 1.3 RANGE WHICH MAY BE EASILY REACHED BOTH
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW IN SOME LOCALES.

AS FAR AS THE POP NUMBERS GO...I WILL KEEP LIKELY ALONG THE COAST FOR
TOMORROW AS WINDS TURN MORE TOWARD WEST PROVIDING FOR MORE FAVORABLE
CONVERGENCE. WILL NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM TEMPS.

@1 VOLUSIA BREVARD
@2 INDIAN RIVER ST LUCIE MARTIN
@3 LAKE ORANGE SEMINOLE OSCEOLA OKEECHOBEEl

MCO 072/089 072/090 073 603423
DAB 071/087 071/087 072 603534
MLB 072/088 072/088 073 603534

CRISTALDI

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-081630-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1124 AM EDT FRI SEP 8 1995

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AMPLE
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE PENINSULA FROM THE TROPICS WILL HELP TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH LIGHT WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS...A SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE EAST COAST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME NUMEROUS NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR AT UPPER LEVELS...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME TEMPORARY URBAN FLOODING....ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH
ARE SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS ALSO LIKELY.

MARINE OUTLOOK...STORMS THAT FORM OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS SHOULD SPREAD
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN ADDITION TO
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

LASCODY