Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
251 PM EDT THU SEP 7 1995

UPPER LOW OVER GULF TO SIT IN PLACE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN SLOWLY OPEN
UP AND DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHARE TBW/S CONCERN
ABOUT 20H/30H SPEED MAX AND MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH PUSHING INTO THE
INTERIOR LATER TOMORROW.  MAY ENHANCE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ISOLD SVR DEPENDING...MUCH LIKE TODAY...UPON HOW MUCH RESIDUAL AS/CS
BLOWOFF HOLDS DOWN SURFACE HEATING. CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED. RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS AND ASSOCIATED COOL
POOL TO MOVE ACROSS STATE ON DAY 2 WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER
SOUTHERN HALF OF PENINSULA. MEDIUM RANGE SHOWS SLOW IMPROVEMENT INTO
THIS WEEKEND...WOULD BE NICE TO SEE GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS
OVER MANY AREAS.

LARGE CIRCULATION OF SLOW MOVING HURRICANE "LUIS" WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LARGE SWELLS UP AND DOWN COAST NEXT 2 MAYBE 3 DAYS...HENCE
THE CFW/HSA. CURRENT REPORTS FROM BOY009 AND 010 SHOW 7 FOOT SWELLS
NEARSHORE AND 11-12 OFFSHORE. MAY EDGE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN NHC TRACK
CONTINUES WITH WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO
BEAR WATCHING.

@1 VOLUSIA
@2 BREVARD INDIAN RIVER ST LUCIE MARTIN8
@3 LAKE
@4 ORANGE SEMINOLE OSCEOLA OKEECHOBEE

MCO 072/087 072/089 073 604433
DAB 071/086 071/087 072 603434
MLB 072/087 073/088 073 603534

CRISTALDI

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-071730-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1125 AM EDT THU SEP 7 1995

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO REMAIN STATIONARY PRODUCING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
THESE COOLER TEMPERATURE WITH THE UPPER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA AREA. THIS
DESTABILIZATION IN COMBINATION WITH AN ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
STREAM FLOWING OVER THE STATE FROM THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

IN CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
EAST COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
PRODUCED BY A WEAK SEABREEZE. EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTY AREAS AS THIS
AREA WILL RECEIVE SUBSTANCIAL HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AT ANY TIME IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN
COVERAGE PUSHING INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE SLOWLY PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINS OVER AREAS. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES WERE
REPORTED YESTERDAY AND ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION AS SLICK ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL MAKE
DRIVING CONDITIONS DANGEROUS. AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING DENSITY OVER AN
AREA IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. REMEMBER LIGHTNING IS
THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER KILLER IN FLORIDA. REMAIN INDOORS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER YOUR AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED TODAY WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH WITH SOME STORMS.

MARINE INTERESTS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE 25
MILES AND BEYOND FROM THE COAST. IN THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE COAST AND INTO THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND MAINTAIN A WATCH
TO THE WEST FOR DEVELOPING STORMS OR STORMS MOVING OVER THE COAST
WHICH COULD MAKE RETURN TO PORT DIFFICULT. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME STORMS.

CHOY

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-071730-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1125 AM EDT THU SEP 7 1995

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO REMAIN STATIONARY PRODUCING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
THESE COOLER TEMPERATURE WITH THE UPPER CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA AREA. THIS
DESTABILIZATION IN COMBINATION WITH AN ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
STREAM FLOWING OVER THE STATE FROM THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

IN CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
EAST COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
PRODUCED BY A WEAK SEABREEZE. EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTY AREAS AS THIS
AREA WILL RECEIVE SUBSTANCIAL HEATING IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AT ANY TIME IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN
COVERAGE PUSHING INLAND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE SLOWLY PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAINS OVER AREAS. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES WERE
REPORTED YESTERDAY AND ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE
EXTREME CAUTION AS SLICK ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL MAKE
DRIVING CONDITIONS DANGEROUS. AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING DENSITY OVER AN
AREA IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. REMEMBER LIGHTNING IS
THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER KILLER IN FLORIDA. REMAIN INDOORS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER YOUR AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED TODAY WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH WITH SOME STORMS.

MARINE INTERESTS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE 25
MILES AND BEYOND FROM THE COAST. IN THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE COAST AND INTO THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO USE> CAUTION AND MAINTAIN A WATCH
TO THE WEST FOR DEVELOPING STORMS OR STORMS MOVING OVER THE COAST
WHICH COULD MAKE RETURN TO PORT DIFFICULT. LIGHTNING...LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME STORMS.

CHOY