Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
224 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 1995

12Z RUNS SHOW WHAT I EXPECTED...NAMELY THAT THE "ALLEGED" DRYING WILL
NOT OCCUR AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...AS MRH LEVELS REMAIN HIGH IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS AND BECOME A BIT HIGHER ON DAY 2. ALSO...BROAD
TROFFING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF...BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT...WITH
ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. GENERALLY LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE TO 70H STEERING FLOW STAYS ACROSS REGION WHICH ALLOWS FOR SEA
BREEZE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS WILL
SPELL HIGHER POPS FOR EAST COAST...COMPARED TO INLAND.

WILL FOLLOW FWC TEMPS CLOSELY THIS PERIOD...THOUGH WILL GO HIGHER WITH
TOMORROWS POPS ALONG COAST.

@1...LAKE ORANGE SEMINOLE OSCEOLA OKEECHOBEE
@2...BREVARD INDIAN RIVER ST LUCIE MARTIN

MCO 073/093 073/093 073 602222
DAB 071/091 071/092 072 603434
MLB 074/091 073/092 073 603434

CRISTALDI

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-081630-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1051 AM EDT SAT JUL 8 1995

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY DOWN THE PENINSULA TODAY FROM THE PANHANDLE. WEAK WEST WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONVERGE WITH EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE COAST
AS THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...COLLISION BETWEEN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND THIS LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THESE AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...WARM AIR WILL BE FORCED UPWARD TO
CREATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
FORM INLAND AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE COASTAL STORMS AND LAKE
BREEZES INTERACT. STORMS WHICH FORM TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST.

THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR PRESENTLY OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
FLORIDA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS
DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ABOUT LEESBURG TO DAYTONA BEACH. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE ALREADY HIGH INSTABILITY...ALLOWING FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO
PRODUCING FLORIDA/S NUMBER ONE THUNDERSTORM KILLER...DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 50 MPH...HAIL...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

MARINE OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FROM LAND AREAS TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS...ROUGH SEAS...DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING...AND/OR WATERSPOUTS.

CRISTALDI

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-081630-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1051 AM EDT SAT JUL 8 1995

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY DOWN THE PENINSULA TODAY FROM THE PANHANDLE. WEAK WEST WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONVERGE WITH EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE COAST
AS THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...COLLISION BETWEEN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND THIS LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THESE AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...WARM AIR WILL BE FORCED UPWARD TO
CREATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
FORM INLAND AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE COASTAL STORMS AND LAKE
BREEZES INTERACT. STORMS WHICH FORM TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST.

THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...DRY AIR PRESENTLY OVER EXTREME NORTHERN
FLORIDA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS
DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ABOUT LEESBURG TO DAYTONA BEACH. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE ALREADY HIGH INSTABILITY...ALLOWING FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO
PRODUCING FLORIDA/S NUMBER ONE THUNDERSTORM KILLER...DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 50 MPH...HAIL...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

MARINE OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FROM LAND AREAS TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS...ROUGH SEAS...DEADLY CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING...AND/OR WATERSPOUTS.

CRISTALDI