Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
234 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 1995

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASING OVER AND JUST WEST OF WESTERN ZONES AND
SPREADING EAST AT THIS TIME. TRW SHOULD EFFECT MUCH OF INLAND AREAS
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON...AND REACH EAST COAST THIS EVENING. COLLISION
BETWEEN THIS CONVECTION AND EAST COAST BREEZE LIKELY TO RESULT IN A
FEW STRONG STORMS. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST OF SCATTERED EVENING
STORMS INLAND AND GOOD CHANCE EAST COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS FOUND A HOME ACROSS CENTRAL PENINSULA AND
SHOULD REMAIN ANCHORED HERE THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK SHORT
WAVE PROGGED TO REACH ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH MESO BOUNDARIES...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR GOOD COVERAGE
TRW INTERIOR EARLY...SPREADING TO COAST DURING THE EVENING. SYNOPTIC
SCALE WESTERLY FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT OR AT LEAST
RESTRICT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO IMMEDIATE COAST SATURDAY...AND
LIKELY INHIBIT SUNDAY. NGM/ETA MOVE UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH/PVA LOBE ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE SATURDAY/EARLY
SUNDAY. SW 850 JET PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
AVN IS WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH MID LEVEL FEATURE. WILL USE GOOD
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS DURING SAT/SUN AND SCATTERED POPS AT
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH BULK OF EVENING ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME TRW OVERNIGHT SAT AND SUN MORNING
WITH APPROACH OF STRONG TROUGH. FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SAT
NEAR BOUNDARY COLLISIONS BUT WILL NOT MENTION UNTIL EFFECTS AND TIMING
OF TROUGH BECOME MORE CERTAIN. WILL FOLLOW PERS<ISTENCE ON TEMPS.
TBW...APPRECIATE YOUR VIVID INSIGHT TO THE FORECAST.

@1...VOLUSIA BREVARD INDIAN RIVER ST LUCIE MARTIN
@2...LAKE SEMINOLE ORANGE OSCEOLA OKEECHOBEE

MCO 73/91/73/91 4645
DAB 71/92/72/91 5535
MLB 73/91/73/90 5535

SPRATT