Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EST FRI MAR 31 1995

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS C FL FROM AROUND TTS TO BAYPORT ATTM DRIFTING SWD.
RW/TRW CURRENTLY CONFINED N OF FRONT..BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SOME TRW DEVELOP
S OF FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER HEATING AND INCREASING INSTAB. WITH
UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS TONIGHT AND PER WW147 WILL MENTION SEVERE TRW
POSSIBLE AREAS 1 AND 2..ALSO POSITION OF JET WILL AID IN SOME HEAVY RAIN
AMOUNTS NRN AREAS AND WILL MENTION AREA 1. WEAK SFC LOW TO DEVELOP IN GULF
ALONG BOUNDARY AND CROSS PENINSULA AT 12-24 HRS. SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS
STATE IN STJ WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING SWD THROUGH CYCLE. WILL STAY ON
HIGH SIDE WITH POPS ON SAT..AND LET MID SHIFT ADD WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINS OR
STRONG TRW IF STILL NEEDED. WILL BEGIN TO TAPER POPS DOWN FROM N ON SAT NIGHT
AND KEEP LOW POPS IN AREA 3 FOR SUN. 850 TROF STILL W OF STATE AT 48 HRS AND
WILL KEEP CLOUDS PESSIMISTIC FOR SUN. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL
GENERALLY ACCEPT.

@1...VOLUSIA LAKE SEMINOLE ORANGE OSCEOLA
@2...BREVARD INDIAN RIVER
@3...MARTIN OKEECHOBEE ST LUCIE

MCO 63/71/58/74 7631
DAB 61/68/56/71 7631
MLB 63/73/60/74 6741

GLITTO

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-311730-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1104 AM EST FRI MAR 31 1995

...EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE MORNING WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA WILL INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
THE INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA..AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
NEAR THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ADDITIONALLY..ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. LISTEN TO LOCAL MEDIA OR OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER
UPDATES. STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BY TONIGHT.

GLITTO

FLZ040-010050-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAYTONA BEACH FL
248 PM EST FRI MAR 31 1995

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MARION COUNTY...

THE NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING
MARION COUNTY.  THE WATCH IS EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM EST.

LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

FLZ038-040-501-312145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND RADAR SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAYTONA BEACH FL
345 PM EST FRI MAR 31 1995

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE
PART OF CENTRAL FLORIDA UNTIL 800 PM THIS EVENING AND INCLUDES
MARION COUNTY...

AT 340 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING FROM THE GULF COASTAL WATERS OFFSHORE
BAYPORT AND NEW PORT RICHEY INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AROUND LEESBURG AND EUSTIS.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN COVERED A GOOD PART OF THE STATE AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...ORLANDO AND
TAMPA.

MOVEMENT WAS EAST 25 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  PERSONS SHOULD WATCH FOR
THREATENING WEATHER AND LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO... COMMERCIAL
RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.