Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
941 AM EST SAT MAR 18 1995

FEW HRS OF MRNG SUN...CAPE SWD SHUD ALLOW TMPS TO WARM ENUF FOR S/B DVLPMNT.
TRW COMPLEX OVR ERN GLF TO SPREAD ONSHORE WITH OUTFLOW BDRYS SPREADING EWD AND
INITIATING SCT CNVTN ACRS INTERIOR ZNS AFTN HRS. 12Z ETA PROGS IMPLY PVA ACRS
FA TDA AS VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH GLF UPR LO REACHES NW FL ARND 00Z. ALTHO LO
LVL WND FIELDS WK AND SFC TMPS SHUD ONLY RCH 70S...COLD MD LVL TMPS LKLY TO
LEAD TO FEW HAIL PRODUCING TRW. IF E CST S/B SETS UP...STG LCL CNVRGC MAY
FURTHER INCR SVR THREAT AND TRW CVRG CSTL CNTYS BY LT AFTN. PRESENCE OF 850
TROF AXIS ACRS CNTL PEN MAY FURTHER ADD TO LWR LVL CNVRGC. WITH ALL ZNS CNTLY
IN GUD CHC POP CAT...WL INCR POPS TO LKLY CSTL ZNS BREVARD SWD TO DELINIATE
GREATEST FORCING DUE TO MESOSCALE BDRYS.

@1...VOLUSIA
@2...LAKE SEMINOLE ORANGE OSCEOLA OKEECHOBEE
@3...BREVARD INDIAN RIVER ST LUCIE MARTIN

SPRATT

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-181730-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM EST SAT MAR 18 1995

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY..REACHING NORTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE EVENING. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID ATMOSPHERE...COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALREADY OCCURRED WITH A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SARASOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE STORMS MOVE
TOWARD THE EAST AND MEET THE SEA BREEZE...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BOATERS ON THE INTRACOASTAL
AND COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STORMS MOVING OFF THE PENINSULA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPOTTERS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED EVENTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MELBOURNE. AMATEUR RADIO GROUPS ARE ADVISED TO ACTIVATE IF A SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR LATER UPDATES.

SPRATT

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-501-181730-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM EST SAT MAR 18 1995

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY..REACHING NORTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE EVENING. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID ATMOSPHERE...COMBINED WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALREADY OCCURRED WITH A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR SARASOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE STORMS MOVE
TOWARD THE EAST AND MEET THE SEA BREEZE...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BOATERS ON THE INTRACOASTAL
AND COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STORMS MOVING OFF THE PENINSULA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPOTTERS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED EVENTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MELBOURNE. AMATEUR RADIO GROUPS ARE ADVISED TO ACTIVATHE IF A SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR LATER UPDATES.

SPRATT