Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT NC
210 PM EST TUE NOV 7 1995

RDU: GUID MINS LOOK GOOD FOR TONIGHT AS FROPA WILL BE BEFORE SUNRISE
AND TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY.  FWC MINS ON WED NEED TO BE TRIMMED
BACK A CAT AS STRNG CAA WILL NOT ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE MUCH.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE FWC TEMPS LOOK GOOD.  LIKELY POPS IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT...THEN DRY.

DISC: THINK THE SELS OUTLOOK NEEDS TO BE BROUGHT FURTHER TO THE N.
COASTAL TROF/WRM FRONT HAS PROGRESSED NW AS S SFC FLOW AND 700/500
MB DRY PUNCH WORK UP THE COAST LATE THIS AFTN.  TEMP HERE AT MHX HAS
SHOT TO 70 DEGREES AND DWPT TO 65.  OUTLOOK IS GETTING BETTER FOR
TSTMS.  72V AND L2Z SHOW GREAT CONV AND UVM OVR CNTRL/SE NC.  WITH
LOW LVL MOIST ADVECTG IN AND TEMPS WRMING...SUFFICENT DESTAB OF THE
ATMOS IS NOW OCCURRING.  FORTUNATELY FLOW HAS BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL
WITH TIME...BUT WITH 50 KNOT 850 JET OVHD...CAN/T RULE OUT SVR.

EXPECT FROPA AT THE COAST 7-9Z THEN RAPID COOLING AND DRYING.  TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE MID 50S IN STRNG CAA PTRN WED.  MINS
ON THU AM DEPENDANT ON HOW MUCH DECOPLG TAKES PLACE...BUT MID 30S
SHUD COVER MOST LOCALES WITH 850 TEMPS NR -5.  COOL WX TO CONTINUE
ON THU AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVHD.

CWF: CAN/T FIGURE OUT WHATS GOING ON OVR THE CSTL WTRS!  FPSN AND
CHLV GALE FORCE...WHILE CKLN AND DSNL ONLY 10 KTS! AS CIGS LIFT ALNG
THE COAST...CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT WILL BE INCREASED AND WNDS WILL
INCREASE TO NR GALE FORCE OVR THE COASTAL WATERS.  WILL SPLIT CWF TO
ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER WNDS AND SEAS N OF LOOKOUT WITH NORTHERLY WIND
WED-THU.  WAVE HEIGHT DIFCLT TO FCST AS AM UNSURE HOW LONG WNDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW.  PROLONGED OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL MAKE WAVES
CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING FCST.  WILL LET LTR
SHIFTS MASSAGE THIS.

.MHC...GALE WRNG CSTL WTS S OF VA BEACH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
       SCA FOR THE SOUNDS.

JME