Tornado Warning 12, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT NC
1030 AM EST TUE NOV 7 1995

RDU: LOWER TEMPS A CAT DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLDS/PCPN.  WILL MAKE NO
CHGS TO HEADLINES IN CWF.

DISC: 12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COMPLICATED SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE PTRN.
MAIN CF STRETCHES FRM WSTRN OH SOUTH TO WSTRN TN THEN WEST TO OK.  A
WRM FRNT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING FROM AL TO S AR.  IN ADDITION A
THERMAL MOISTURE BNDRY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN NC ALNG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.  THIS BNDRY SEPERATES RAIN COOLED AIR WITH
TEMPS/DWPTS IN THE 40S FRM MODIFIED ATL AIR WITH TEMPS IN THE 50/60S
ALNG THE COAST.  THIS BNDRY COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTN TSTMS AS
MAIN RAIN BAND IS NOW PUNCHING NE AND SHOULD BE OUT OF MOST OF THE
MHX CWA BY NOON.

U/A ANALYSIS REVEALED 50 KT LOW LVL JET NOW OVR NC WITH BROADLY DIFL
FLOW ACRS THE ESTRN US.  THIS IS HELPING TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD R-/R
ACRS THE REGION.  THERE ARE PLENTY OF DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT TSTMS
TODAY...HOWEVER MODIFIED 12Z MHX SOUNDG (69,61) REVEALED LACK OF
INSTAB WITH LI OF ONLY 3 AND NO CAPE.  AGREE WITH SELS THAT TSMS
INITIALLY WILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO LACK OF INSTAB.  AS LOW LVL JET
COMES INTO PLAY ACRS THE ESTRN NC LTR TDY...THIS MAY BE ABLE TO
PROVIDE ENUF ENERGY TO DEVELOP TSTMS ALNG THE TMB.  TOUGH CALL.

CWF: GRAD BEGINING TO TIGHTEN AND WNDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ALNG
THE CSTL WTRS.  RAIN COOLED AIR OVR THE CSTL WTRS MAY PREVENT STRNG
WNDS FROM MIXING DOWN INITIALLY...BUT AS RAIN AREA DIMINISHESF AND
LOW LVL JET PROPOGATES INTO THE AREA...WNDS SHUD RESPOND.  CONTINUE
CURRENT CWF.

.MHC...GALE WRNG CSTL WTS S OF VA BEACH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
       SCA FOR THE SOUNDS.

JME