Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT NC
230 PM EDT WED JUN 7 1995

RDU: 20/30 POP THIS EVNG THEN NO POPS TIL FRI WITH ANTHR 20 POP.
GUID TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH VRY WRM 850 TEMPS AND DWNSLP COMPONENT TO
WND.  ON THE CWF WILL MAINTAIN THE SPLIT TO ACCOUNT FOR BACKDOOR
FRNTL SYSTEM OVR THE NRN WTRS.  SPEEDS/SEAS BELOW SCA EXPECTED.

DISC: ADAP SHOWG DEEP INSTAB POCKET OVR INTERIOR ESTRN NC.  ACTIVITY
BEGINING TO FIRE IN THIS REGION AND WILL BE AIDED BY APPRCHG MID LVL
S/W.  IF ACTIVITY CAN DVLP FURTHER NE IT MAY BE ENHANCED BY
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE ALNG THE COAST WHICH SHOWS UP WELL ON KMHX
88-D.  GSO MODIFIED SOUNDG HAD A CAPE OF 2000 AND L.I. OF -6.  WBZ
BELOW 10000 FT SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL PRIMARY SVR THREAT.  ACTIVITY
WILL SUBSIDE AS S/W PASSES COAST BEFORE MID.  GRIDDED DATA/PC CAPE
INDICATED BEST CHC FOR TRW WOULD PRIMARILY S OF THE MHX CWA CLOSEST
TO TRACK OF S/W AND STRNGST LOW LVL CONV.

TOM DWNSLP W FLOW SFC/ALFT TO CONTINUE WITH 850 TEMPS NR 20C.  TEMPS
INALND WILL SOAR INTO THE MID 90S AT LEAST.  FWC INDICATG UPPER 90S
AT EWN AND NCA! SHOULD EVEN REACH NR 90 AT THE BEACHES AND OB WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW.  GRIDDED DATA INDICATED VERY LITTLE LIFT/FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ON THU WITH ANTHR WK S/W PROGGED THRU BY THU EVNG.  WRM
MID LVL TEMPS SHUD PRECLUDE ANY DVLPMNT.  COULD BE SOME WIDELY SCT
ON FRI AS BACKDOOR FRNT CROSSES INTO NRN NC.

CWF: FLOW TO REMAIN BASICALLY W THRU THE PERIOD WITH WNDS SHIFTING
TO THEN-NE LATE THU NIGHT/FRI OVR THE NRN WTRS.  SPEEDS GENERALLY
15-20 KTS.  IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CANCELL SCA AS WNDS/SEAS OVR MOST
OF THE NRN WTRS NOW BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND SHOULD SUBSIDE AT DSNL BY
THE TIME THE FCST GOES TO PRESS.

.MHX...NONE.

JME