Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT, NC
207 PM EST FRI JAN 6 1995

VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICAL SYSTEM POISED TO AFFECT ESTRN NC TONIGHT AND
SAT.  MAIN PROBLEMS IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS WILL BE GALES AND HIGH SURF
ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

EXAMINATION OF 12Z GRIDDED DATA REVEALS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX LATE TONIGHT AND ERLY SAT.  ESTRN NC WILL COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET.  THIS WILL ACT WITH
VRY STRNG LOW LVL FORCING (850 MB JET 60 KT) TO PRODUCE STRNG LIFT OVR
THE AREA.  ALTHOUGH NGM L.I. MAY BE OVERDONE...WITH THIS MUCH ENERGY ARND
IT DOESN/T TAKE MUCH TO GET THINGS COOKING.  THE FAST MOVENMNT OF THE
CONVECTION WILL HELP MIX DOWN STRNG WNDS TO THE SFC WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  SPEED AND DIR SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENUF FOR ISOLD
TORNADOES.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF PCPN STARTED COMING OFFF THE WATER WHERE COASTAL
FRONTOGENESIS IS OCCURRRING.  WITH STRNG WAA ADVECTION TEMPS WILL NOT
FALL MUCH FROM CURRENT VALUES AND MAY EVEN RISE TOWARDS MORNING.

FOR THE MARINE FORECAST...GRIDDED DATA...FOUS AND MRP GUID ALL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF GALE FORCE WINDS FOR 12-18 HRS TONIGHT AND SAT.  WITH
STRNG WINDS PRODUCING 10 FT SEAS WE WOULD LIKE TO ISSUE A HEAVY SURF ADV
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH.  EAST-WEST FACING BEACHES WILL BE THE MOST
VULNERABLE TO EROSION.  NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH COASTAL FLOODING AS EVENT
WILL BE BRIEF AND HIGH TIDES SAT WILL BE THE LOWEST OF THE MONTH.
PALPAM1 PROGRAM INDICATES SOME MINOR SOUND FLOODING POSSIBLE ROANOKE
ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF INLAND HYDE/DARE COUNTIES.  WILL HANDLE WITH
MWS.

EXPECT CWF ARND 3 PM.

THANKS ILM FOR INPUT.

.MHX...GALE WARNG  S OF VA BEACH TO THE LITTLE RIVER INLET.
       HEAVY SURF ADV FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH.

JME

SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-070515-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
1015 PM EST FRI JAN 6 1995

...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTH COAST AND NORTH MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS EVENING.
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH.

TORNADO PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND A TORNADO
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA UNTIL 4 AM
SATURDAY.

SQI