Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON TX
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 1995

PREV THINKING STILL HOLDING UP WITH JET AXIS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
PER H20 VAPOR--MAIN JET AXIS STRETCHING FROM LRD TO HOU TO ESF WITH
SATEL AND RADAR INDICATING BRANCHING OVER EXTREME SETX AND CENT LA.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH IN THE 75-78 RANGE...CAPES RUNNING HIGH AT
4400+.  JET DYNAMICS BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL EXPECT
CONVECTION TO WEAKEN EAST AND THEN REDEVELOP TO THE N AND NW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH APPROACHING S/W AND FRONT.  BUT IN THE MEANTIME MORE
HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NE ZONES.  WILL ISSUE FFA FOR THE N-NE. RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE NE ZONES OF 1" TO 2" WITH ISOLATED 4-5" AMOUNTS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...HARDIN AND JASPER ALREADY HARD HIT WITH 88D
ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 4 INCHES AS OF 19Z. VILS OF 60 LOOK LIKE SVR
TERRITORY.  COORDINATED WITH SAT ON FFA...FROM BPT TO CLL TO AUS AND
POINTS WEST.  WILL MENTION SVR POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF AREA WITH LOC
HVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF FA.

45

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-290500-

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON TX
415 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 1995

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT...GENERALLY NORTH OF A BEAUMONT TO
BAY CITY TO VICTORIA LINE.  THE CITIES OF HOUSTON...  BRYAN/COLLEGE
STATION...BEAUMONT AND HUNTSVILLE ARE INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA. IN ADDITION A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTH OF A
BEAUMONT TO CONROE TO COLLEGE STATION LINE.

COOL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG A LINE FROM LIBERTY TO
JASPER WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAIN.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE GREATEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAINLY
NORTH OF A BEAUMONT TO LIBERTY TO MADISONVILLE LINE.  RADAR ESTIMATES
OF RAINFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON RANGED FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
EXTREME TOTALS NEAR 6 INCHES OVER CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY AND BETWEEN
KOUNTZE AND DEWEYVILLE.  MORE RAIN IS TO BE EXPECTED WTIH NUMEROUS 1
TO 2 INCHES REPORTS AND ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE NORTH OF A DEWEYVILLE TO KOUNTZE TO LIBERTY TO
HUNTSVILLE LINE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER
NEWS SOURCES FOR FURTHER UPDATES.