Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON TX
210 AM CDT THU MAY 18 1995

H20 VAPOR INDICATING R/R OF SPEED MAX CLIPPING THE NW ZONES AS IT
LIFTS OUT TO THE NE.  SURFACE AND RADAR DATA INDICATING CONVECTION
FIRING NEAR THE MAIN JET AXIS OF 100 KNOTS...OBVIOUSLY PROVIDING AN
EXCELLENT VENTILATOR FOR THE STORMS.  WOULD ANTICIPATE SVR TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE THIS AFTERNOON.  FRONT
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH MOST OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT THE LOSS OF THE S WINDS AT 850 AS
THEY BECOME MORE SW WILL HELP TO CAP OFF THE AREA FROM THE SW. BUT
CONVERGENCE AT FRONT OVER THE E ZONES WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION OVER E ZONES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN.
AFTER THE FROPA AREA SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY...UNFORTUNATELY
DISAGREE WITH SOME OF THE MODELS--DONT THINK THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
VERY FAR OFF SHORE.  POTENT LOOKING S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING
INTO MEX AND SW US BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PULL THE FRONT BACK
NORTH FASTER THAN CURRENT MODELS INDICATING.  LOOKING LIKE FAIR
CHANCE OF POPS ON SUNDAY BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE THE WHOLE MRF PACKAGE.
WILL STAY WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF MOS.

SO MUCH FOR LAST NIGHTS FORECAST OF FROPA AT IAH AT 6 AM THIS MORNING
...JUST LIVE'N AND DIE'N BY THE MODELS. (SOUNDS LIKE THE NAME OF NEW
COUNTRY SONG).

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON TX
1223 AM CDT THU MAY 18 1995

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 5 AM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
...HOUSTON...LEON...TRINITY...JACKSON...WHARTON...AUSTIN...
BRAZOS...COLORADO...ROBERTSON...BURLESON...MILAM...WASHINGTON...BRAZORIA
...HARRIS...MATAGORDA...FORT BEND ...MONTGOMERY...WALKER...WALLER
...GRIMES...LIBERTY...POLK...MADISON...SAN JACINTO...AND ADJOINING
COASTAL WATERS.

WARM MOIST AIR...A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND A DRY
LINE LOCATED IN CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE PRODUCED AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.