Tornado Warning 27, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 PM MDT (329 PM CDT) MON SEP 18 1995

FIRST FCST PROBLEM WL BE EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF TSTMS TON WITH TEMPS
THE SCNDARY PROBLEM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU ON ALL ASPECTS OF
SCENARIO THRU TMRW EXCEPT FOR AMOUNT OF COOLG.

SATL...SFC...UPR AIR...AND LOCAL MESO ANAL POINT TO AN ACTIVE TSTM
EVNG. ONE GROUP OF TSTMS FORMED OVR GROUP 2 OF NW KS IN ASSOC WITH A
WK S/W MOVG THRU. THOSE ARE ABT TO MOVE OUT OF THAT AREA. WITH AMPLE
MSTR SUPPLY AS INDICATED BY PRECIP WATER...LEE TROF PROVG GOOD MSTR
CONV...AND STRONG PIVA AND COOLG ALFT AS A RESULT OF S/W MOVG IN FM
WEST...SHOULD HAVE SCT TO WDSPRD TRW THRU EVNG.

MODIFIED DDC/LBF SNDGS HAVE LIS -10 TO -13 WITH CAPES FM 2260 TO 3650
J/KG. DIR SHEAR IS GOOD BUT SPEED SHEAR IS LACKING. WITH LGT WNDS
ALFT AND WET-BULB ZEROS...THREATS WL BE LARGE HAIL...DMG WINDS...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MNLY THRU THE EVNG HOURS. DYNAMICS LESSEN SOME
BY LATE IN THE NGT. HWVR WITH LINGERING DYNAMICS AND COLD FRONT MOVG
IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME...PCPN WL PROBABLY CARRY OVR PAST 12Z.

COULD SEE A BREAK FM THE PCPN DURG THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY WITH CHC
INCRG AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTN AS UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS AND ANOTHER S/W
MOVES IN.

ALL 3 MODELS HAVE FROPA ARND 12Z. WITH AMS SO COLD BEHIND FRONT AND
AMS COOLG AHEAD OF FRONT...WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED DUE TO PREV
EXPERIENCE IF IT ACCELERATED SOME AFT 06Z AND BE HEAR IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIME FRAME. TIMG OF FRONT MAKES MINS TRICKY. THINK MOS IS TOO WARM
DUE TO CLIMO AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RAIN COOLED AMS AND ELYR THAN
INDICATED FROPA...WL GO BLO MOS.

WITH FROPA OCCURG OVR MUCH OF AREA BEFORE OR ARND SUNRISE...TMPS
SHOULD NOT CLIMB MUCH AND WL PROBABLY BE EARLY IN THE DAY. PREFER
ETA COOLER 850 TMPS DUE TO IT DOING BETTER IN THIS KIND OF SITN.
DUE TO THAT PLUS NGM BEING BIASED BY CLIMO AND WITH EARLY FROPA...
BLV MOS IS AGAIN TOO WARM AND WL GO CLOSER TO FAN GUIDANCE. WITH
STRONG CAA BEHIND FRONT...WINDS WL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE AND
MAKE CONDS EVEN MORE MISERABLE.

GLD  052/055  73    HLC  057/062  73
CBK  053/056  73    MCK  052/055  84
TRB  054/058  73    5C0  052/055  74

BULLER

COZ090>092-NEZ079>081-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-190600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1058 AM MDT (1158 AM CDT) MON SEP 18 1995

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

CHEYENNE CO   CHEYENNE KS   DECATUR KS     DUNDY NE        GOVE KS
GRAHAM KS     GREELEY KS    HITCHCOCK NE   KIT CARSON CO   LOGAN KS
NORTON KS     RAWLINS KS    RED WILLOW NE  SHERIDAN KS     SHERMAN KS
THOMAS KS     WALLACE KS    WICHITA KS     YUMA CO

SYNOPSIS: A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE THAT RUNS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA PLUS
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT).

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THEREFORE...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE REQUIRED.

BULLER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-190150-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 PM MDT (325 PM CDT) MON SEP 18 1995

...A HINT OF AUTUMN IS ON THE WAY TO NORTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND THE
SURROUNDING AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
AIR TO THE AREA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL INITIALLY KEEP MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR BY THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING WILL
MOSTLY LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLIGHTLY
BY THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THIS CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. GARDENERS
MAY WANT TO PROTECT THEIR CROPS. DISCONNECT HOSES FROM OUTDOOR
FAUCETS.
MENTZER