Tornado Warning 24, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
158 PM MDT (258 PM CDT) MON JUL 3 1995

LOCATION OF DRY LINE AND INCOMING DISTURBANCE KEY TO FORECAST THIS
TIME AROUND. WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NOW DEVELOPING OVER
EVEN FAR WRN KS CWA...WIND SHIFT LINE NOW SEEMS TO BE IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE GRADIANT. THIS PLACES THE DRY LINE ALONG THE
KS-NE/CO BORDER. SHOWERS DEVELOPED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THIS
MORNING ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS KSZ001-002 AND NEZ079-080...BUT HAVE
SINCE DISSIPATED. REMNANT CLOUDS MAY BE TEMPS A TAD WARMER AND MORE
STABLE THERE FOR ACTION LATER ON.

ALL SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY DDC...PRETTY EXPLOSIVE THIS MORNING.
MUCH COOLER 700 MB WILL LIKELY BREAK CAP PARTICULARLY ALONG
BOUNDARY...BUT MAY NOT COME IN SOON ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS. MAIN
QUESTION WILL DYNAMICS BE ADDED TO THE MIX. ETA IS FASTEST IN BRING
PVA IN BY 00Z...WITH NGM LATER IN THE EVENING...AND AVN NOT UNTIL
AROUND 12Z. 18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA WOULD
INDICATE THAT SLOWER AVN MAY BE HAVE BEST TIMING WITH MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY STILL BACK OVER ERN UTAH. WITH STRONG JET MOVING DOWN FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...TROUGH SHOULD SLOW AND DIG. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

BOTTOM LINE...WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CO ZNS.
SCATTERED POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DRY LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MORE GARDEN VARIETY THUNDER WITH
DYNAMICS LATE TONIGHT.

FAN/FWCS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT AND SEEM REASONABLE WITH
FROPA OVERNIGHT. WITH 18Z TEMPS STILL IN LOW TO MIDDLE 60S BEHIND
FRONT IN WY AND MT AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS LINGERING IN TROUGH
TOMORROW...FAVOR COOLER FAN FOR TUESDAY.

BARKER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
140 PM MDT (240 PM CDT) MON JUL 3 1995

...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT)...

AFTERNOON HEATING...IN COMBINATION WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...MAY ALLOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.  BE READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM CELLAR IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION WILL BE CONTAINED
IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS.

BARKER