Tornado Warning 10, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 PM MDT (303 PM CDT) FRI MAY 12 1995

DISCUSSION:

LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW LOCATED OVER NE COLORADO. DRY LINE
EXTENDING FROM LOW SOMEWHERE WEST OF 5C0 TO TRIBUNE WHERE DEW[POINTS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW 30S AND THE TEMP CURRENTLY NEAR 80.

AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...AM EXPECTING LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF KS/NE BORDER. ADAP SHOWING BEST PRESSURE FALL
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE LOW SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY TOWARDS THIS
AREA. THIS MOVEMENT DIFFERS FROM THE MODELS AS NONE APPEAR TO HANDLE
SFC FEATURES WELL.

AS FOR UPPER FEATURES...NGM INITIALIZED THE VORT LOBE THAT CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN KS AND NEBRASKA. NGM BRING IN
NEXT SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONCE THIS FEATURE CATCHES UP
WITH SFC MOISTURE THINGS TO GO OFF PRETTY QUICKLY.

AS FOR CURRENT FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE EVERYTHING ON TRACK EXCEPT FOR
SOUTHERN KS COUNTIES AND COLORADO ZONE 92 WHERE DRY AIR NOW IN PLACE.
RECOMMEND DROPPING POPS THERE FOR THIS EVENING.

WOULD LEAVE REST OF CURRENT FORECASTS ALONE FOR NOW.

GLD 43/63 42  HLC 50/64 64
CBK 44/63 42  MCK 46/62 65
TRB 41/65 31  5C0 42/62 42

TURNER

COZ090>092-NEZ079>081-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-130600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1059 AM MDT (1159 AM CDT) FRI MAY 12 1995

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

CHEYENNE CO   CHEYENNE KS   DECATUR KS     DUNDY NE        GOVE KS
GRAHAM KS     GREELEY KS    HITCHCOCK NE   KIT CARSON CO   LOGAN KS
NORTON KS     RAWLINS KS    RED WILLOW NE  SHERIDAN KS     SHERMAN KS
THOMAS KS     WALLACE KS    WICHITA KS     YUMA CO

SYNOPSIS:

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WARM MOIST AIR AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

ALL PERSONS IN THE AREA SHOULD REVIEW SEVERE STORM> SAFETY RULES FOR
HOME...SCHOOL AND THE WORKPLACE. PLEASE MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR LOCAL COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

TURNER

KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-122030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
127 PM MDT (227 PM CDT) FRI MAY 12 1995

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 363 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT)
   FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA...

THE NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS FORECAST CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH
EFFECTIVE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND TO RUSSEL SPRINGS.

CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH INCLUDE GOODLAND...COLBY...MCCOOK...
HILL CITY...NORTON...OBERLIN...TRENTON...AND OAKLEY.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT).

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF A TORNADO...THE SAFEST PLACE IN A HOME OR
BUSINESS IS AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR POSSIBLE.  AVOID
WINDOWS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS
WEATHER SITUATION.

FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION WILL BE CONTAINED
IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS.

TURNER