Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 PM MDT (325 PM CDT) WED JUN 21 1995

THE FCST PROBLEM WILL BE THE CHC OF TSTMS WHICH ENTIRELY DEPENDS ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP.  ACTIVITY THIS MRNG DUE TO CAP HAVG
WEEKENED SLIGHTLY AND S/W THAT MOVED THRU HAVG ENUF COLD AIR TO SET
THINGS OFF.  OVERALL PREFER THE ETA AGAIN DUE TO SATL...UPR AIR
ANAL...AND SFC ANAL VERIFYING YDAS 00Z RUN BETTER...AND ALSO SHOWG
12Z RUN BEING CLOSER TO WHAT IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW.  HWVR...DO
SLIGHTLY FAVOR THE NGM FOR S/W DETAIL SINCE IT SHOWS THE WEAK S/WS
THAT ARE UPSTREAM A LTL BETTER.

LEE TROF/DRY LINE STILL OVR ERN CO/NE PANHANDLE.  SATL SHOWS S/W
EXTENDG FM WRN CO INTO CNTRL NM.  TSTMS ARE ALREADY FIRING UP IN NM.
ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWG UP WELL ON SATL...UPR AIR ANAL DID SHOW ANOTHER
S/W OVR AZ.  S/WS WITH BNDRIES SHOULD SET OFF TSTMS.  HWVR...BASED
ON UPR AIR ANAL AND ADAP...CAP STRENGTH APPEARS TO HAVE COME UP A
LTL...PLUS CIRRUS SHIELD HAS HELD BACK TEMPS SOME.  ETA TIME SCNTS OF
TEMP SHOWS THE STRENGTHENING CAP.

HWVR...LATER ON TON...CAP WEAKENS AGAIN AND COULD ALLOW MORE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.  CONSIDERING ALL FACTORS...CHC EXISTS FOR
TSTMS THRU THE NIGHT.  FOR THU...CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF TO THE
LATE AFTN/EARLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF FRONT...PVA...AND COOLING ALFT.

DUE TO LATER ARRIVAL OF FRONT...WINDS WILL STAY FM THE SOUTH.  MOS
CONTS TO DO A GOOD JOB ON MINS.  LOOKING AT DPS TO THE SOUTH
COMBINED WITH EXPECTED CLD COVER AND WINDS...MOS MINS LOOK FINE.
MOS MAXES MAY BE A LTL LOW BASED ON ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE/NORMAL
BIASES COMBINED WITH FACT OF LATER ARRIVING FRONT.

GLD 61/87 33  HLC 65/92 33
CBK 63/88 33  MCK 66/89 32
TRB 60/89 33  5C0 58/86 33

BULLER