Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DRAFT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MST (327 PM CST) SAT MAR 25 1995

DISCUSSION...NGM MODEL TYPICALLY INITIALIZED SFC LOW TOO FAR NORTH AND
WEST OF ACTUAL 12Z LOCATION.  ETA HAD BEST HANDLE ON POSITION WHILE BOTH
NGM/ETA BOTH HAD LOW TOO WEAK AT 12Z.  BOTH MODELS DID INDICATE LOW TO
DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST.

TWO MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS CYCLE...AND SELS JUST SOLVED THE FIRST
WITH THE ISSUANCE OF SVR TSTM WATCH OVER EASTERN COUNTIES OF NW KS.
SECOND PROBLEM IS WHEN SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE AREA.  AS DISCUSSED
EARLIER WITH TOP FORECASTER...BELIEVE DYNAMIC COOLING TO PRODUCE SNOW
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WELL BEFORE THE MODELS INDICATE TEMPS
TO BE COLD ENOUGH.  AND WITH LOTS OF LIFT PROGGED OVER THE REGION WILL
NOT BE SURPRIZED IF SEVERAL LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE TSW+ LATE THIS
EVENING.

ONLY RECOMMENDATION ATTM CONCERNS WSW OVER NW KS FOR LATE TONIGHT...AND
WILL END DISCUSSION HERE DUE TO THE ACTIVE WX OVER THE REGION.

TURNER

COZ090>092-NEZ079-080-252300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MST (1130 AM CST) SAT MAR 25 1995

...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR EXTREME
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SLOWLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE STORM TODAY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD INITIALLY TAKE THE FORM OF
RAIN. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...
THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH...AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO...SNOW. THE
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY EVEN BE OCCASIONALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF TO FLURRIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED...DRIFTS WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL IN EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
COLORADO TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS. DRESS WARMLY AND MAKE SURE YOUR CAR IS IN GOOD
RUNNING CONDITION. YOU MIGHT ALSO CONSIDER TAKING A WINTER STORM KIT
WITH YOU...INCLUDING SUCH ITEMS AS TIRE CHAINS...BOOSTER CABLES...A
SHOVEL...BLANKETS AND EXTRA CLOTHING...OR ANYTHING ELSE THAT WOULD HELP
YOU SURVIVE IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED ON THE ROADS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

FREIBURGER

COZ090>092-NEZ079>081-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-252155-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1052 AM MST (1152 AM CST) SAT MAR 25 1995

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

CHEYENNE CO   CHEYENNE KS   DECATUR KS     DUNDY NE        GOVE KS
GRAHAM KS     GREELEY KS    HITCHCOCK NE   KIT CARSON CO   LOGAN KS
NORTON KS     RAWLINS KS    RED WILLOW NE  SHERIDAN KS     SHERMAN KS
THOMAS KS     WALLACE KS    WICHITA KS     YUMA CO

SYNOPSIS: THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LOW PRESSURE AREA DRIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.  A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
AROUND OBERLIN TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GOVE KANSAS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

TURNER

KSC109-203-252330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
324 PM MST (424 PM CST) SAT MAR 25 1995

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHERN LOGAN AND WICHITA
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 424 PM CST...GOODLAND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
LOGAN AND WICHITA COUNTIES WERE NO LONGER SEVERE.  THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHERN LOGAN AND WICHITA COUNTIES HAS
THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED.

TURNER