Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1995

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Goodland, KS

May 21, 1995Dundy County, Nebraska

NWS Goodland, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 21, 1995, 3:20 PM MDT for Dundy County, Nebraska. It was in force for 35 min.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 21, 1995, 3:20 PM MDT (21:20 UTC)
Expired: May 21, 1995, 3:55 PM MDT
In force: 35 min
Issued by: NWS Goodland, KS
Area: Whole counties

County Dundy County, NE

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1929 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 18 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 113 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

The text of this product is not in the archive. The NWS text archive before 2002 is incomplete.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 21, 1:29 PM MDT, 1 hour 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 21, 1:29 PM MDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
129 PM MDT (229 PM CDT) SUN MAY 21 1995

...MAYBE IT IS TIME TO GET WORRIED...

SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BEYOND 24 HOURS.  NGM AND ETA ARE SIMILAR
AT UPPER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH ETA IS SLOWER WITH LEAD MID LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE NEAR UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 48 HOURS.  AVN DOES NOT
HAVE THAT SHORTWAVE IN ITS PROG AND IS SLOWEST OF THREE KICKING
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA OUT TO PLAINS.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH POSITIONING OF SURFACE FEATURES...AND
EVEN BETTER AFTER CONSIDERING NGM TENDENCY TO PLACE LEE LOWS A
LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST.

LOW LEVEL JET TO SET UP TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...RAISING
SOME CONCERN FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.  DEWPOINTS AT SURFACE ARE
ALREADY RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE PROGS...AND INSTABILITY IS
GREATER THAN FORECAST.

LOOKS LIKE SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CWA AND LIE
DIAGONALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS LATE MONDAY.
PROGRESS OF FRONT MOVES TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH ALONG COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER DURING DAY MONDAY.  PROFILE OF WIND NORTH OF FRONT BECOMES
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON AND MODELS SUGGEST
MCS DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY.  NGM QPF GOES
NUTS ALONG AND NORTH OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.

PREFER A ETA/AVN COMPROMISE AS I AM UNSURE OF PROGRESS OF SHORTWAVE.
FAN AND FWC GUIDANCE ARE SIMILAR.  WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
MINS AS DEWPOINTS ARE GREATER TH0AN PROGGED AND WILL LEAN TOWARD
FAN WHERE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FAN AND FWC.

GLD 53/68 45  HLC 57/74 45
CBK 54/68 45  MCK 55/70 46
TRB 54/70 45  5C0 53/66 45

ENTWISTLE

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 21, 10:53 AM MDT, 4 hours 27 minutes before

COZ090>092-NEZ079>081-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-220600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1033 AM MDT (1133 AM CDT) SUN MAY 21 1995

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

CHEYENNE CO   CHEYENNE KS   DECATUR KS     DUNDY NE        GOVE KS
GRAHAM KS     GREELEY KS    HITCHCOCK NE   KIT CARSON CO   LOGAN KS
NORTON KS     RAWLINS KS    RED WILLOW NE  SHERIDAN KS     SHERMAN KS
THOMAS KS     WALLACE KS    WICHITA KS     YUMA CO

SYNOPSIS:

PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS...EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.  WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH COOLING AND LIFT AT MID LEVELS TO
GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BY PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN 3/4 INCH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9 PM LOCAL TIME.

ENTWISTLE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Goodland, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 21, 2:32 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Dundy	33 min
May 21, 3:41 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Hitchcock	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Nebraska, 1995 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1995

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.