Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 PM MDT (318 PM CDT) SAT AUG 5 1995

DISCUSSION...BIG CHALLENGE PROSPECTS FOR TRW/SEVERE WX TNGT.

DID TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTION OF VORT ADVECTION OVER AREA. NGM
STRUCTURE OF INCOMING WAVE MUCH CLOSER TO WHAT SAT PIX SHOWS THAN
ETA...SO NGM MODEL OF CHOICE TDY. NGM HAS WAVE PASSING E OF AREA BY
00Z...WHICH WIND PROFILERS ALSO SUPPORT. CONSIDERING VERY HIGH LOW
LVL DEWPOINTS...AND ESTIMATED AFTN CAPES OF APROX 3500...LOOK FOR
SCT TRW...SOME PSBLY SVR...AS WV PASSES. PCPN CUTTING OFF QUICKLY
TOWARDS SUNDOWN AND MOS POPS LOOK GOOD FOR ACTUAL OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

AFTN ERLY TNGT ALL MODELS CONCUR WITH BIG RDG BUILDING OVR US AND
HOT DRY PERIOD. HOWEVER FWC TEMPS MAY BE TOO AGRESSIVE WITH
WARMING...AS HAS HAPPENED WITH OTHER HOT SPELLS THIS YEAR.

KWIATKOWSKI

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