Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 PM MDT (319 PM CDT) SAT JUL 1 1995

TIMING OF SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO BE MAIN TRICK THIS TIME AROUND. RAIN
HAS ABOUT MOVED OUT OF NERN CWA AT 18Z AND CIGS HAVE GONE UP MOST
EVERYWHERE BUT GLD. SOUTHWESTERN CWA HAS MOVED INTO THE 60S AND LAA
HAS MOVED INTO THE 70S. WITH NEXT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
50S...A FEW BREAKS SHOULD ALLOW DECENT DESTABILIZATION.

THUNDERSTORM ALREADY IN VICINITY OF COS AND AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO FIRE JUST EAST OF FRONT RANGE...
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF PALMER DIVIDE WHERE MORE BREAKS
AREW OCCURING...THEN PROPAGATE EAST. BOTH NGM AND ETA GRIDDED DATA
SHOW EXCELLENT 700-850 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER WRN CWA BY 00Z. LOW
LEVEL TEMPS ARE COOL ENOUGH THAT SEVERE THREAT IS PROBABLY
LOW...EXCEPT MAYBE EXTREME SW CWA...BUT AT LEAST SOME THUNDER A GOOD
BET ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS DYNAMICS MOVES EAST. RWD AND GLD
VWP SHOW 20-30 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

WITH MODELS INDICATING INTENSIFYING LEE TROUGH OVER CWA BY 00Z MON
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP ATMOSPHERE MOIST...
WOULD THINK POPS AGAIN WARRENTED SUNDAY. THOUGH SOME WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECASTED FOR CO COUNTIES...ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES LINGERING TO PROBABLY
WARRENT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE. LIKE WETTER FAN POPS OVER FWCS.
THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR ALL BUT WRN
CWA...FAN PROBABLY HAS TOO LARGE DIURNAL RANGE...RECOMMEND
COMPROMISE BETWEEN FAN/FWC.

BARKER

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COZ090>092-012020-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
115 PM MDT SAT JUL 1 1995

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
UNTIL 10 PM...

DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION.
THEREFORE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH
FOR SOUTHERN YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF EASTERN
COLORADO UNTIL 10 PM MDT.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.  BE READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM CELLAR IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

BARKER

KSZ027>029-041-042-012225-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
319 PM MDT (419 PM CDT) SAT JUL 1 1995

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT)...

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR
WALLACE...LOGAN...GOVE...GREELEY...AND WICHITA COUNTIES THROUGH 10
PM MDT (11 PM CDT).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO
OCCUR.  BE READY TO MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR STORM CELLAR IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

BARKER