Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
310 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 1995

TSTM COMPLEX WHICH DVLPD OVR WRN KS LAST NGT HAS PULSED UP AND DN SVRL
TIMES AS IT TRFD ACRS NRN KS INTO NRN MO. COMBO OF INCRG WAA AND PSBL
H7 VORT LOBE NOTED IN MRNG GRIDDED DATA. HWVR IF FEATURE IS PRESENT IT
IS NOT SHOWG UP TOO WELL ON LTST PROFILERS. NEW TSTMS FIRING ACRS ERN
KS WITH VILS PULSING IN THE 40S/LOW 50S. THIS ACTVTY GOING UP IN RGN OF
BROAD UPR DIFLUENCE AND NR NOSE OF H8 JET. AMS RATHER STABLE OVR FA BUT
IT IS DSTBLZG. WILL KEEP CLOSE EYE ON ERN KS STORMS.

STG DYNAMIC FORCING/INCRG INSTBY/VERY STG WIND FIELDS COMING TOGETHER
FOR OUOTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS OVR KS/NEB INTO EXTRM WRN MO...AS NOTED IN
SELS SWODY1. EXPC SVR NOW DVLPG OVR NW KS TO DVLP SWD AND RACE NEWD...
REACHING WRN PTN OF FA 06Z OR LATER. STG DYNAMIC FORCING AND WINDFIELDS
STILL SUPPORT THREAT OF TORNADOES OVR WRN PTN OF FA LT TNGT.

HAD THOUGHT TSTMS WOULD EXIT FA ERY SAT MRNG BUT NOW HVG SOME DOUBTS AS
MOIST AXIS/SFC WIND SHFT LN MAY STALL NR KS/MO BDR SAT MRNG AND WAIT
FOR NEXT UPSTRM SHRTWV. THUS AT LEAST ERN PTN OF FA COULD SEE SVR AGAIN
BY AFTN. VERY WINDY ON SAT WITH GOOD WRMUP TOO...WILL GO ABV GUID.

MCI  58/76    93

JULY

MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054-067-
KSZ025-057-060-102>105-131200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
137 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 1995

THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE EASTERN KANSAS COUNTIES OF

ATCHISON  DONIPHAN  JOHNSON  LEAVENWORTH  LINN  MIAMI  WYANDOTTE

AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES OF

ADAIR      CASS       GENTRY     JOHNSON     PETTIS    SCHUYLER
ANDREW     CHARITON   GRUNDY     LAFAYETTE   PLATTE    SULLIVAN
ATCHISON   CLAY       HARRISON   LINN        PUTNAM    WORTH
BATES      CLINTON    HENRY      LIVINGSTON  RANDOLPH
BUCHANAN   COOPER     HOLT       MACON       RAY
CALDWELL   DAVIESS    HOWARD     MERCER      ST CLAIR
CARROLL    DEKALB     JACKSON    NODAWAY     SALINE

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME WESTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT...
...THE REST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST...REACHING NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS LOW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF WARM MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD AND INTO KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE GROUND AND A VERY STRONG WESTERLY WIND IN
EXCESS OF 100 MPH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 MILES OFF THE GROUND WILL COME
TOGETHER OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
PROVIDE THE ADDED INGREDIANT FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND TORNADOES.

THESE SEVERE STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD AND REACH
THE EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF MISSOURI AROUND MIDNIGHT OR LATER. DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING TORNADOES
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A LINE FROM BETHANY
TO BUTLER. THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AROUND A HALF AN INCH AN HOUR IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVE INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER TONIGHT WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MANY
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE THE GROUND
REMAINS SATURATED AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ALLOW
THESE RIVERS TO RISE BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

AREA EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR LATER
UPDATES. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

JULY