Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
320 AM CDT WED JUN 7 1995

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER NEBR. CURRENT TRACK
WOULD KEEP IT NORTH OF THE NW CORNER OF MO...FITTING MORE OF THE ETA
THICKNESS PATTERN RATHER THAN THE NGMS. ALL MODELS KEEP BOUNDARIES
NORTH OF AREA TODAY AS RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF STRONG
LOW OVER GREAT BASIN. MODELS SIMILAR IN KEEPING UPPER LOW AROUND
SLC THRU 48 HRS...BUT DIVERGE ON SFC BOUNDARY POSITION. CONVECTION
ALONG BOUNDARY TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO PUSH IT FURTHER SOUTH SO PREFER
ETA/AVN SOLUTION. ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SVR...HEAVY RAINS WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN IN NRN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY.

CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TODAY LOOK DOUBTFUL AS WARMING AT H8 AND
H7 LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THE CAP IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS IN WRKZFP LOOK FINE.
WITH DPTS STAYING UP...MAY NOT REACH 90 IN MANY PLACES...BUT WITH HIGH
HUMIDITIES...IT WILL FEEL THAT WARM.

MCI  86/69  14

PC

MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054-067-
KSZ025-057-060-102>105-071800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
600 AM CDT WED JUN 7 1995

THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE EASTERN KANSAS COUNTIES OF

ATCHISON  DONIPHAN  JOHNSON  LEAVENWORTH  LINN  MIAMI  WYANDOTTE

AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES OF

ADAIR      CASS       GENTRY     JOHNSON     PETTIS    SCHUYLER
ANDREW     CHARITON   GRUNDY     LAFAYETTE   PLATTE    SULLIVAN
ATCHISON   CLAY       HARRISON   LINN        PUTNAM    WORTH
BATES      CLINTON    HENRY      LIVINGSTON  RANDOLPH
BUCHANAN   COOPER     HOLT       MACON       RAY
CALDWELL   DAVIESS    HOWARD     MERCER      ST CLAIR
CARROLL    DEKALB     JACKSON    NODAWAY     SALINE

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN
THE NORTHWEST PART OF MISSOURI AND A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS MORNING...TO THE NORTH OF
ST. JOSEPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF WINDS REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA. THESE
STORMS WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL COME TONIGHT AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
HELP SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY IS IN WHERE EXACTLY THIS FRONT WILL BE
TONIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM PAOLA KANSAS TO BOONVILLE MISSOURI.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING IN THE EXTREME NORTH
AND IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT.

PC

MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054-067-
KSZ025-057-060-102>105-071800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
600 AM CDT WED JUN 7 1995

THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE EASTERN KANSAS COUNTIES OF

ATCHISON  DONIPHAN  JOHNSON  LEAVENWORTH  LINN  MIAMI  WYANDOTTE

AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES OF

ADAIR      CASS       GENTRY     JOHNSON     PETTIS    SCHUYLER
ANDREW     CHARITON   GRUNDY     LAFAYETTE   PLATTE    SULLIVAN
ATCHISON   CLAY       HARRISON   LINN        PUTNAM    WORTH
BATES      CLINTON    HENRY      LIVINGSTON  RANDOLPH
BUCHANAN   COOPER     HOLT       MACON       RAY
CALDWELL   DAVIESS    HOWARD     MERCER      ST CLAIR
CARROLL    DEKALB     JACKSON    NODAWAY     SALINE

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IN
THE NORTHWEST PART OF MISSOURI AND A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS MORNING...TO THE NORTH OF
ST. JOSEPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF WINDS REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA. THESE
STORMS WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL COME TONIGHT AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
HELP SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY IS IN WHERE EXACTLY THIS FRONT WILL BE
TONIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM PAOLA KANSAS TO BOONVILLE MISSOURI.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING IN THE EXTREME NORTH
AND IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT.

PC