Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
940 AM CDT SAT MAY 13 1995

SFC WMFNT CONTS TO MOV NWD ACRS NRN MO THIS MRNG AS LO-LVL MSTR ADVCTS
NWD INTO WRN MO. SFC DRYLINE XTNDS FM W OF TOP TO E OF ICT...AND 2-HR
ALTIMITER CHGS (12Z-14Z) SHOWS DECENT FALL-RISE COUPLET WITH RISES OVR
NRN OK AND FALLS OVR NRN MO/SRN IA. NEW ETA MDL THRU 12 HRS SHOWS SFC
BNDRY MOVG TO A IRK-JLN LINE BY LATE AFTN WITH WLY LO-LVL FLO BHD
BNDRY. VRY WARM MID-LVL TEMPS WL REQUIRE CONSIDERABLE INSOLATION OR STG
UVV TO BREAK CAP. WUD XPCT COMBINATION OF THE ABV-MENTIONED FACTORS TO
BRK CAP BY MID-LATE AFTN...WITH AREAS JUST E OF MKC IN MOST FAVORED
REGIONS FOR TSTMS. WIND PROFILE AND FCST CAPE SUGGESTS HI POTL FOR SVR
CONVCTN...IN LINE WITH CURNT FCST. POPS TNGHT MAY BE TOO HIGH.

MCI  82/57   52

BB

MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054-067-
KSZ025-057-060-102>105-141200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 1995

THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE EASTERN KANSAS COUNTIES OF

ATCHISON  DONIPHAN  JOHNSON  LEAVENWORTH  LINN  MIAMI  WYANDOTTE

AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI COUNTIES OF

ADAIR      CASS       GENTRY     JOHNSON     PETTIS    SCHUYLER
ANDREW     CHARITON   GRUNDY     LAFAYETTE   PLATTE    SULLIVAN
ATCHISON   CLAY       HARRISON   LINN        PUTNAM    WORTH
BATES      CLINTON    HENRY      LIVINGSTON  RANDOLPH
BUCHANAN   COOPER     HOLT       MACON       RAY
CALDWELL   DAVIESS    HOWARD     MERCER      ST CLAIR
CARROLL    DEKALB     JACKSON    NODAWAY     SALINE
...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
EAST OF A LINE FROM BETHANY TO CLINTON. THIS INCLUDES
CHILLICOTHE...KIRKSVILLE...MOBERLY...BOONVILLE...TRENTON AND SEDALIA.
THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE THE KANSAS CITY AND ST JOSEPH AREAS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEBASKA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DRYLINE...WHICH MARKS THE LEADING
EDGE OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR...EXTENDED SOUTH ALONG THE
KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE TO NEAR A LINE
FROM BETHANY TO CLINTON BY MID-AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST...WITH SOME
OF THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY THIS
EVENING.
SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

BUNTING