Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
800 PM CDT FRI JUL 7 1995

TWO KEY PLAYERS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SVR WX OVR CWA TNT...

FIRST OF ALL...A WEAK CNVGNC LINE FM MCI TO PO2 HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF
TSTM DVLPMNT LAST SVRL HRS OVR SRN MO. ATM VERY UNSTBL...00Z ADAD DATA
STILL SHWS STG CNVGNC FIELD ALNG BDRY AND LOWEST LI'S S OF KC METRO
AREA. HEATING WILL BE DYING OFF AFT 01Z BUT PROFILERS EARLIER INDICATED
NOSE OF WEAK H8 JET POINTIING RIGHT AT NW END OF BNDRY. WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR CWA FM MCI TO SZL NXT FEW HRS. FOR SRN CWA IN WATCH SVR WATCH
AREA HAVE UPDATED NOW'S FOR TSTM DVLPMNT BETWEEN 9 PM AND MDNT.

NEXT WE HAVE H5 SHRT WX AND PVA PUNCHING INTO NRN IA ATTM. AREA OF AC
AND R- OBSERVED ON 88-D LAST FEW HRS OVR IA ALNG LEADING EDGE OF H8
WAA. STLT AT 00Z STARTING TO SHW MORE TWRG CU OVR IA AS PVA NOSES SWRD
FM NRN PLNS. OAX SNDG MUCH MORE UNSTBL AT 00Z WITH BOTH HIGHER CAPE AND
DELTA-T. 00Z PROFILE DATA AND 850-300 THICKNESS AXIS WOULD STEER MCS
MORE TWRDS N CENT OR NE MO...HOWEVER AS DAY SHIFT AT EAX POINTED OUT
EARLIER...TSTMS OVERNIGHT MAY WANT TO BUILD INTO UNSTBL AIR OVR WRN MO.
BUT WITH N-S BNDRY SETTING UP OVR IA AND H8 JET RAMMING INTO IT FM THE
WEST...N CENT MO SEEMS LIKE MOST LIKELY TARGET ATTM FOR AFT MDNT.
FCST LKS GOOD...NO SGFNT CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

BODNER

MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054-067-
KSZ025-057-060-102>105-081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
815 PM CDT FRI JUL 7 1995

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SAT FOR
      CASS...JOHNSON...PETTIS...COOPER...BATES...HENRY AND
          ST CLAIR COUNTIES...

A WEAK BOUNDRY OF CONVERGING WINDS EXTENDING FROM KANSAS CITY TO POPLAR
BLUFF HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS PROMPTED THE SEVERE STORMS
FORECAST CENTER TO ISSUE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF OUR OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDRY BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY TO HAPPEN AT THE PRESENT
TIME. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDRY THIS EVENING...IT
WILL MOST LIKELY BE SOUTH OF A SEDALIA WARRENSBURG BUTLER LINE.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS OVER IOWA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ONCE AGAIN COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF A ST
JOSEPH KANSAS CITY RICHMOND BOONEVILLE LINE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY* TONIGHT IN THE
EVENT SPOTTERS ARE NEEDED.

BODNER

MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054-067-
KSZ025-057-060-102>105-081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
815 PM CDT FRI JUL 7 1995

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SAT FOR
      CASS...JOHNSON...PETTIS...COOPER...BATES...HENRY AND
          ST CLAIR COUNTIES...

A WEAK BOUNDRY OF CONVERGING WINDS EXTENDING FROM KANSAS CITY TO POPLAR
BLUFF HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS PROMPTED THE SEVERE STORMS
FORECAST CENTER TO ISSUE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF OUR OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDRY BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY TO HAPPEN AT THE PRESENT
TIME. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDRY THIS EVENING...IT
WILL MOST LIKELY BE SOUTH OF A SEDALIA WARRENSBURG BUTLER LINE.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FIRES UP THUNDERSTORMS OVER IOWA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND ONCE AGAIN COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF A ST
JOSEPH KANSAS CITY RICHMOND BOONEVILLE LINE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY TONIGHT IN THE
EVENT SPOTTERS ARE NEEDED.

BODNER