Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
321 PM CDT SUN JUL 23 1995

MAIN PROBLEM IS ONSET OF TRW THIS EVENING.

AN AREA OF TRW WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER IN STAFFORD COUNTY HAS ALREADY
MOVED EAST AND DISSIPATED LEAVING A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
DODGE. LATEST SFC ANAL SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER IN THE VICINITY OF A PERSISTANT BOUNDARY ON
DDC/S 88D REFLECTIVITY LOOP. THE LATEST SSW SHOWS A LINE OF CONVERGENCE
JUST EAST OF DDC/S CWA. THE 5M(V,A) SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER SW
COLORADO/NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND THE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF TRW
FORMING IN THE SAME AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS MORNING/S DDC SOUNDING
WHEN MODIFIED GIVES LI IN THE MINUS 10 RANGE AND CAPES IN THE 3700
RANGE. ALL THIS SUGGESTS THAT DDC/S CWA IS PRIMED FOR TRW THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SSC SHOWS A 3-4C CAP OVER DDC/S CWA AND THIS
MAY HAVE PLAYED A MAJOR ROLE IN DISSIPATING THE TRW WHICH DEVELOPED
EARLIER IN STAFFORD COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS AGREE IN MOVING A SHORT WAVE AND VORT LOBE OVER DDC/S CWA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS VORT MAX IS AIDED BY WEAK UPWARD UVV AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...THE VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MID DAY MONDAY WHICH IMPLIES NVA OVER DDC/S CWA AND AN
END TO TRW OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF DDC/S CWA BY MID DAY
MONDAY.

BELL