Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
227 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 1995

DURATION OF DEVELOPING TRW IS THE QUESTION.

WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SW KANSAS AND HAVING CITIZEN REPORTS
OF FUNNEL CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH...DON/T HAVE A LOT OF TIME FOR THIS
WRITING. THUNDERSTORMS UP TO 50 DBZ HAVE DEVELOPED OVER FINNEY COUNTY
IN PAST HOUR AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY TO EAST. COMPARING DDC/S VAD WINDS
WITH THE PROFILERS TO WEST OF DDC SUGGESTS THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO COME AROUND TO NORTHERLY SO EXPECT DOWNSLOPE TO BEGIN EARLY
THIS EVENING. HAVE BINOVCS OVER DDC AND RISING CIGS OVER GCK...SO WOULD
EXPECT TRW/RW TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING.

NGM SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE COULD CAUSE AREAS OF DENSE FOG...SO RECOMMEND KEEPING
FOG IN FOR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE PCGRIDD/S ETA SHOWS LI/S SUFFICIENT
FOR TRW ON THURSDAY...BELIEVE THAT DYNAMICS WILL BE EAST OF DDC/S CWA
AND THEREFORE DON/T FEEL WE SHOULD INCLUDE TRW FOR TOMORROW.

BELL

KSZ030-031-043-044-045-046-061-062-063-064-065-066-074-075-076-
077-078-079-080-081-087-088-089-090-010130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
228 PM CDT (128 PM MDT) WED MAY 31 1995

...FUNNEL CLOUDS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSHOWERS. FUNNEL CLOUDS LIKE THESE SELDOM TOUCH THE
GROUND...AND IF THEY DO...THEY PRODUCE LITTLE DAMAGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED NEAR HILL CITY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR GARDEN CITY. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD IN THE VICINITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS A CONSEQUENCE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER... COLD
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS FREQUENTLY EXHIBIT WEAK
ROTATION AND OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE FUNNEL CLOUDS. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THAT WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. IN THE MORE CLASSIC TORNADIC
ENVIRONMENT...WINDS ARE MUCH STRONGER...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LONG-LIVED STRONG CIRCULATIONS. WITH WEAK WINDS LIKE THOSE OF
TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE
QUICKLY...AND ANY FUNNEL CLOUDS WHICH DO OCCUR ARE UNLIKELY TO TOUCH THE
GROUND. THEY APPEAR MUCH MORE DANGEROUS THAN THEY ACTUALLY ARE.

01