Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION... CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1020 AM EDT THU JUL 6 1995

LATEST SFC ANLYS SHOWS CONV FLO ACR PA WITH SERLY FLO E OF MTNS AND
SWRLY FLO W OF MTNS ACRS WRN PA. ALL THREE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
CONV SRLY FLO WILL CONT TODAY AS DWPTS RANGE FROM THE UPR 60S TO
LOW 70S ACRS THE FA. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE SHWG SIGNIFICANT LOW-
LVL MOISTUIRE CONV ACRS REGION THR F24. LI/S FROM AREA SOUNDINGS
UNMODIFIED ARE RUNNING FROM -3 TO -4 ACRS REGION ALREADY. MODELS
INDICATE THAT A VORT LOBE FROM 700 TO 500 MB WILL SWING NEWRD TODAY
ARND UPR LO THAT WAS N CNTRD OF MN. THIS S/W WILL LEAD TO SOME
COOLING AT ABT 700 MB WHICH WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES SOME THIS
AFTRN ADDING TO INSTABILITY. MODELS ALL TAKE A LO-LVL PRES TROF THR
REGION TODAY WHICH LIKELY IS A REFLECTION OF UPR LVL VORT LOBE
WHICH CUD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. COMPLICATING FACTORS AS TO SVR
TRW IS WHETHER WE WILL SEE ENUF SS OR NOT. RAMSDIS SWHG PLENTY OF
CLDS WORKING ERWD TWD FA AND SERLY LO-LVL FLO HAS SOCKED SUS VLLY
IN WITH LO CLDS TOO. LATEST VSBL LOOP INDICATES THAT MUCH OF CNTRL
PA WILL SEE SUNSHINE AT LEAST THRU LATE MORNING. WUD EXPECT BEST
ACVTY TO FIRE FIRST IN THE MTNS OF WRN/CNTRL PA AND WORK E-NE.
ANTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR ARE SHWRS THAT ARE MOVG NEWRD ACRS ERN
OH INTO WRN PA. THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE FALLING APART WITH MOST
OF THE PRECIP GONING UP INTO CANADA HAS FOCUS FROM MID-LVL JET AND
ASSCTD LOW-LVL JET WORKS NWRD.  IF WE SEE ENUF SS THINK THAT SVR
TRW IS A GOOD PSBLITY. MODIFIED PIT SOUNDINGS WITH 85/68 AND GOT -6
... IAD WITH 85/72 GOT ALSO ABT -6 WHICH IS MODERATELY UNSTBL.
POPS FOR TRW LOOK GOOD THIS AFTRN ALL ZONES.

DON/T THINK THERE IS MUCH OF A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT. MID-
LVL VORT LOBE THAT LIKELY WILL TRIGGER CONVTN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
AND KEEP TRW MOVG. ALSO ... THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT LO-LVL JET ACRS
REGION TO ACHOR CELL DVLPMENT AND LO-LVL MOISTURE CONV REGION(
vWHICH IS TIED TO UPR LVL VORT LOBE) MOVS EWRD TOO. OF COURSE... ONE
OR TWO ISOLATED AREAS CUD SEE SOME MINOR PROBLEMS ESPECLY WITH
OROGRAPHICAL FRCD CNVTN AS THIS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH ALMOST ANY
STRG TRW THAT DVLPS IN SUMMER.

NICOSIA