Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1025 AM EDT SAT JUL 1 1995

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY NOISY DAY. HAD JUST ENOUGH FLOODING LATE YEST
TO MAKE LIFE INTERESTING BUT NOT SO WIDESPREAD TO MAKE IT REALLY
BUSY. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKE MAIN THREAT AGAIN TODAY THO INSTABILITY
SHUD BE MORE IMPOSING THAN YEST. MODIFIED THE PIT 12Z SOUNDING A
BIT. THEY HAVE HAD FROPA BUT FIGURE THE UPPER PARAMETERS WILL STILL
BE FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE. USING 82/72 WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE TO
REACH OVER THE LOWER/MID SUSQ CAME UP WITH LI OF -9 AND A CAPE OF
4000+!. ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL AGAIN BE WEAK BUT WITH HIGH CAPES
CAN'T IGNORE SVR ALTOGETHER. AIRMASS IS JUICY AND SHARP SFC
FRONT/TROF SHUD PASS THRU ERN PART OF STATE LATE PM SETTING THE
STAGE FOR MORE CONVECTION.

18HR GRIDDS SHOW BULLS-EYE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
ERN PA. LI PROGGED TO -5 RANGE ON NGM WITH T-TOTALS >45 AND SFC
BASED CROSS TOTALS >28. LOW LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALSO LEND CREDENCE TO MIGHT OF DEVELOPING
SYSTEM. A LOOK AT UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST DIFFLUENT JET PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE LATER TODAY TO AID IN
DEVELOPMENT. OLD RULES OF THUMB COMPARING 500 TEMPS AND 200 WINDS
SUGGEST WE MAY BE EXPERIENCING A FAIRLY RARE INTERACTION BETWEEN
POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS OVER LOCAL AREA. MAIN STJ IS RUNNING W-E
FROM SRN CAL TO EAST TX...BUT ISOTACHS HINT THAT A FINGER OF THE
STJ MAY ACTUALLY BE POKING UP INTO LOCAL AREA AND POINTING OFF
JERSEY SHORELINE BY MID DAY. ENTRANCE REGION TO THIS JET PROVIDING
FOR THE THERMALLY DIRECT LOW LEVEL AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION THAT IS
PROGGED TO AID IN LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. IR/WATER VAPOR
SHOW SOME LINK TO TROPICS. RESULT WILL BE PLENTY OF FUEL AND
VENTILATION FOR DEVELOPING STORMS. LOW CLOUDS SHUD BREAK UP
PROVIDING SOLAR HEATING AND A BUSY AFTERNOON.

COORD WITH PHL...AGREE THAT FLOOD WATCH WARRANTED OVER SRN AREA.
MOST LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN VERY DRY BUT THE 3" PER HR RAINS THAT HAVE
BEEN COMMON ALMOST DAILY WILL CERTAINLY CAUSE ROADS TO GO UNDER AND
STREAMS TO RISE.

LA CORTE