Flash Flood Warning 82, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
150 AM EST WED NOV 15 1995

MAJOR EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM FOR CNTRL PA. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE
BEEN IMPRESSIVE AS STATE COLLEGE CLOSES IN ON 15 INCHES. BIG
PROBLEM HERE (AND I IMAGINE IN MANY OTHER AREAS IN CNTRL PA) IS THE
WEIGHT OF HEAVY WET SNOW PULLING TREES DOWN. THERE ARE MANY TREES
DOWN IN STATE COLLEGE!! TWO OF OUR EMPLOYEES HAVE TREES DOWN ON
THEIR HOMES AND ANOTHER TREE DOWN BLOCKED THE MAIN ROAD IN STATE
COLLEGE FOR AWHILE. AS OF 1 AM... SNOW AMOUNTS AVERAGE FROM 10 TO
20 INCHES IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS IN THE SUS
VLLY AND FAR NW CTP (SEE CTP SPS).

RAMSDIS SHOWS COMMA HEAD PINWHEELING ARNS CNTRL PA ATTM WITH THE
KCCX 88D SHOWG MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS STAYING MAINLY W OF A
MANSFIELD TO CHAMBERSBURG LINE. MESO-ETA (15Z RUN) AND THIS EVE/S
NGM/AVN/42KM ETA (00Z RUN) ALL SHOW STRG 850 AND 700 MB
FRONTOGENISIS THAT CONFORMS WELL TO THE OBSERVED HEAVY SNOWFALL ON
RADAR. A FEW CSI BANDS AS WELL WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER
HEARD ERLR. MODELS LIFT THIS FRONTOGENTIC/DEFORMATION BAND N INTO
CNTRL NY BY 12Z AS 500 MB LO MOVES TO ERN PA. THE MODERATE AND
HEAVY SNOW WILL WIND DOWN BTWN 9 AND 12Z IN CNTRL PA AS A FIRST
GUESS WITH MAINLY LIGHT BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWS HANGING ON PROBABLY
UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN SFC AND UPR LO LIFT WELL N OF PA. THUS...
THINK WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR ALL OF PIT/S CTP
COUNTIES AT LEAST FOR THIS MORNING AND STICK WITH TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS AND NOT ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS TO MAKE LIFE EASY.

WSFO PHL/S CWA IS A BIT MORE DIFFICULT. AGAIN 88D SHOWS HEAVIEST
PRECIP MAINLY W OF A MANSFIELD TO CHAMBERSBURG LINE. THINK SOME OF
THE HEAVIER DEFORMATION SNOWS CUD PINWHEEL INTO NERN PA AS
SUGGESTED BY SIGNIFICANT UVV/S ON ALL THREE MODELS OVER NRN 1/2 OF
PA AT 12Z. WUD KEEP WINTER STORM WARNING GOING ALL COUNTIES/ZONES
NORTH OF IPT WHICH STAND A BETTER CHANCE FOR GETTING SOME WRAP ARND
SNOWS WITH THE CUT OFF LO. FOR MID SUS VLLY THINGS ARE MORE
COMPLICATED. I CUD EASILY SEE THESE AREAS NOT CASHING IN ON SIG
COMMAND HEAD SNOWS LOOKING AT MODEL UVV/S. MAYBE A FEW MORE INCHES
IN IPT AREA SO WITH NEAR 6 INCHES FROM STORM IN THESE AREAS WINTER
STORM WARNING PROBABLY STILL APPROPIATE MENTIONING TOTAL SNOWS AND
NOT ADDITIONAL SNOWS. AS FOR LWR SUS VLLY RAIN HAS GONE TO SNOW IN
MDT BUT IT IS QUITE LIGHT. WUD DROP ADVY.

AFTER STORM LIFTS TO THE N A TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SETS
UP OFF LAKE ERIE FOR NW PA. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO NR -10C WHICH WILL
BE ENUF TO INTIATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WITH VERY COLD AIR AT
500 MB ACRS ENTIRE STATE AND CYCLONIC FLO THROUGH 500 MB SEE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT MUCH OF WRN/NRN PA. THUS LIKE
SCENNARIO OF SNOW TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS TODAY MOST ZONES
WITH SN SHOWERS TONIGHT MAINLY NRN PA. FOR THU... JET MAX/SHRT WV
WORKS SE ACRS VA BY 00Z FRI WITH COLD POCKET AT 500 MB OVHD AT 00Z.
LO-LVL FLO IS NW WITH 850 MB AT -10C... THUS THINK MORE SNOW
SHOWERS ALL ZONES FRI.

...LAKE SNOW OUTLOOK...
WED 7AM TO WED 7PM...N
WED 7PM TO THU 7AM...Y
THU 7AM TO THU 7PM...Y

COORD WITH PHL/PIT

NICOSIA

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-150900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - WINTER STORM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1230 AM EST WED NOV 15 1995

...WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY OF PENNSYLVANIA AS WELL AS SCHUYLKILL COUNTY
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TONIGHT...

A STRONG COASTAL STORM NEAR PHILADELPHIA AT MIDNIGHT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHWARD...CAUSING A HEAVY SNOW OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTHWARD.

BY THE TIME THE SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING
...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN 12 AND 24 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME SPOTS
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS MAY REACH 30 INCHES. IN THE MIDDLE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TOTALS WILL BE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 INCHES. THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES LATER TONIGHT AS
THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK TO SNOW.

TRAVEL WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. REMEMBER TO
ADJUST YOUR DRIVING FOR WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. SLOW DOWN AND
LEAVE PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOUR CAR AND THE ONE AHEAD OF YOU.

NUMEROUS TREES AND LIMBS ARE REPORTED DOWN...CAUSED BY THE HEAVY
WET SNOW. AS TREES AND BRANCHES FALL ON POWER LINES...RESIDENTS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBLY OF POWER OUTAGES.

SNOWFALL TOTALS AS OF MIDNIGHT...

CITY            COUNTY
STATE COLLEGE   CENTRE        14"...2" 11PM-MIDNIGHT
JOHNSTOWN       CAMBRIA     12.5"
MILLVILLE       COLUMBIA       6"
WELLSBORO       TIOGA       9-10"
ELKLAND         TIOGA         12"
LAWRENCEVILLE   TIOGA          8"
MANSFIELD       TIOGA         12"
CLEARFIELD      CLEARFIELD     8"
LEWISTOWN       MIFFLIN       12"
CAIRNBROOK      SOMERSET      13"
SOMERSET        SOMERSET      21"
BRADFORD        MC KEAN        9"
COUDERSPORT     POTTER        14"...4" BETWEEN 9-10PM
ST MARYS        ELK            9"
SULLIVAN        SULLIVAN       3"
HUNTINGDON COUNTY              1' ON RIDGES...6" IN VALLEYS
FRANKLIN        FRANKLIN       8"

AT 1230 AM EST... STATE COLLEGE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SPOTTERS ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ARE REPORTING FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW PER HOUR ON AVERAGE...WITH EVEN SOME
THUNDER FROM TIME TO TIME.

STAY vTUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR
UPDATES ON THIS STORM.

LA CORTE

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-151200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - WINTER STORM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
230 AM EST WED NOV 15 1995

...WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY OF PENNSYLVANIA AS WELL AS SCHUYLKILL COUNTY
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TONIGHT...

A STRONG COASTAL STORM JUST NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA AT 2AM WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD...CAUSING HEAVY SNOW OVER CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. RAIN OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS COLDER
AIR WORKS SOUTHWARD.

BY THE TIME THE SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING
...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN 12 AND 24 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME SPOTS
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS MAY REACH 30 INCHES. IN THE MIDDLE
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TOTALS WILL BE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 INCHES. THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES LATER TONIGHT AS
THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK TO SNOW.

TRAVEL WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. REPORTS OF MANY
ROADS BEING CLOSED HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED. PARTS OF RTE 219 IN
MC KEAN COUNTY HAVE BEEN CLOSED. RTE 66 IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING
CLOSED AS WELL. OLD RTE 15 IN SOUTHERN WILLIAMSPORT IS CLOSED AS IS
RTE 287 NEAR SALLADASBURG. OVER 170 SEPARATE REPORTS OF TREES BEING
DOWNED BY THE HEAVY WET SNOW HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE CAMBRIA EMA.
MANY TREES ARE DOWN IN THE LOCAL AREA. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO ADJUST
SPEED TO SUIT THE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SLOW DOWN AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
ROOM BETWEEN YOUR CAR AND THE ONE AHEAD OF YOU.

NUMEROUS TREES AND LIMBS CAN BE EXPECTED TO FALL UNDER THE WEIGHT
OF THE HEAVY WET SNOW. AS TREES AND BRANCHES FALL ON POWER LINES...
RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBLY OF PROPERTY DAMAGE
...POWER OUTAGES AND CLOSED ROADS.

SNOWFALL TOTALS AS OF 2AM...

CITY            COUNTY
STATE COLLEGE   CENTRE       16.1"
JOHNSTOWN       CAMBRIA     12.5"
MILLVILLE       COLUMBIA       6"
WELLSBORO       TIOGA       9-10"
ELKLAND         TIOGA         12"
LAWRENCEVILLE   TIOGA          8"
MANSFIELD       TIOGA         12"
CLEARFIELD      CLEARFIELD     8"
LEWISTOWN       MIFFLIN       16"
CAIRNBROOK      SOMERSET      13"
SOMERSET        SOMERSET      21"
BRADFORD        MC KEAN        9"
COUDERSPORT     POTTER        16"...SOME SLEET IN THE LAST HOUR
ST MARYS        ELK            9"
SULLIVAN        SULLIVAN       3"
HUNTINGDON COUNTY              1' ON RIDGES...6" IN VALLEYS
FRANKLIN        FRANKLIN       8"
KANE            MC KEAN       12"
RIDGWAY         ELK           24"...12" SINCE 11PM!!!
                                  COUNTY AT A STANDSTILL

AT 230 AM EST... STATE COLLEGE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW A
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF A GETTYSBURG TO HARRISBURG TO BLOOMSBURG LINE.
THIS AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST WITH
SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BEFORE MORNING.
SPOTTERS ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ARE
REPORTING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW PER HOUR ON AVERAGE..*.WITH
EVEN SOME LIGHTNING FROM TIME TO TIME.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS FOR
UPDATES ON THIS STORM.

LA CORTE/NICOSIA