Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Flash Flood Warnings in 1995
Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS State College, PA
NWS State College, PA issued this flash flood warning at Oct 21, 1995, 6:15 AM EDT for Montour County, Northumberland County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 21, 1995, 6:15 AM EDT (10:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 21, 1995, 10:15 AM EDT
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- NWS State College, PA
- Area
- Whole counties
Counties Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA
The radar
The State College radar (KCCX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 00:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 230 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 294 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -4 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 561 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 248 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 324 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 2.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KCTP 211016 FFWCTP PAC037-093-097-113-211415- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 615 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 1995 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1015 AM EDT FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...S... IN PENNSYLVANIA ...COLUMBIA COUNTY...MONTOUR COUNTY...NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY ...SULLIVAN COUNTY AT 615 AM STATE COLLEGE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAINS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL IN EXCEES OF 2 INCHES HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. LA CORZTE/NICOSIA/DUNHAM &
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Oct 21, 2:37 AM EDT, 3 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 21, 2:37 AM EDT, 3 hours 38 minutes before
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 235 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 1995 STRONG COLD FRONT FROM IPT SOUTH TO JUST WEST OF MDT AT 2AM. LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN OVER CNTRL PA AT THIS TIME IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. NOSE OF 55+ KT LOW LEVEL JET NOW PUSHING INTO SRN NY WITH CTRL PA IN LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF LL JET. STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT OF FLOW ACROSS LLJ MAKING FOR INTENSE LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER AREA. THIS SITS NICELY UNDER STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT COURTESY OF NEGATIVE TILT TROF AND STRONG EVACUATION OCCURRING DUE TO JET SPLITTING AS IT MAKES TURN THRU TROF BASE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY CAUSING EMBEDDED CONVECTION WHICH ISN'T HURTING SYSTEM'S PRECIP MAKING ABILITY...SEEN SEVERAL FLASHES OF LTG OUT WINDOW HERE AT CTP. EARLIER CONCERN WAS FOR POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM TAPPING STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MIXING THEM DOWN IN CONVECTION BUT THIS DOESN'T SEEM TO BE HAPPENING. INITIAL GUSTY WINDS WITH FRONT HAVE CALMED DOWN SOMEWHAT AS WELL. HAD 2.5" OF RAIN HERE AT CTP. RADAR INDICATING 3.9" IN ELK CTY. CORRELATION BETWEEN RADAR AND GAGES KIND OF ERRATIC. SOME RADARA ESTIMATES SEEM PRETTY CLOSE TO GAGES BUT OTHERS SHOWING BIG DISCREPANCIES. WOULD THINK A SYSTEM LIKE THIS WOULD BE UNDERCOOKED A BIT. LA CORTE
The office that day
Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 8:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Clearfield, Elk | 57 min |
| Oct 21, 1:27 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Clearfield, Elk | 4 hr |
| Oct 21, 4:22 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Centre, Clinton | 4 hr |
| Oct 21, 4:28 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Lancaster, Lebanon, York | 4 hr |
| Oct 21, 4:34 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Franklin, Fulton, Huntingdon, Juniata, Mifflin | 4 hr |
| Oct 21, 4:40 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Cameron, Potter | 4 hr |
| Oct 21, 4:40 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Lycoming, Tioga | 4 hr |
| Oct 21, 4:55 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Blair | 4 hr |
| Oct 21, 5:11 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Snyder, Union | 4 hr |
| Oct 21, 5:38 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Schuylkill | 4 hr |
| Oct 21, 6:09 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Adams, Cumberland | 4 hr |
| Oct 21, 6:09 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Dauphin, Perry | 4 hr |
| Oct 21, 6:15 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Columbia, Sullivan | 4 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 1995Every flash flood warning in 1995
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.