Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
150 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 1995

RECOMMENDATIONS...
WSFO PHL... ISOLATED TRW EVE HRS ( ABT 10-20 POP) BEST CHC
            NRN ZONES N OF IPT ( MAYBE 30 POP)
            MO CLDY/FOGGY OVERNIGHT SUS VLLY.
            MUGGY AND PC NRN CNTIES TONIGHT.
            WED-THU NO POPS. LESS HUMID AND A BIT COOLER THU NRN
            ZONES. STILL HOT AND HUMID SUS VLLY.
            NGM POPS SEEM HI THU. LIKE AVN GUDNC LATER PDS
WSFO PIT... CHC POPS TRW NRN MTNS TO LAURELS EVE HRS.
            MUGGY OVNGT.
            NO POPS WED-THU ( <30 POP)
            LESS HUMID AND COOLER N OF I-80 THU. LIKE AVN
            GUDNCE LATER PDS.
DSCN...
...SHORT TERM INFO...
KCCX 88D AND GOES-8 VSBL SHOWG SCTRD RW/TRW FORMING OVER SRN NY
STATE TO NR PA-NY BRDR IN ASSCTN WITH INSTABILITY AXIS AS SEEN ON
MESO ADAP CHARTS. LI/S WERE -6/-7 IN AN AXIS FROM NRN/WRN NY TO OH
CLIPPING NW PA. SFC MOISTURE CONV WAS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT
MODELS LIKE YSTA ARE PROGGING MODEST 1000 MB MOIST CONV ACRS CNTRL
PA BY 00Z AGAIN AS A MORE ERLY FLO IN ERN PA PUSHES UP AGAINST A
MORE WRLY FLO ACRS OH VLLY INTO WRN PA. SFC FRNT WILL NOT MAKE IT
TO ANY PART OF FA BEFORE 12Z. WILL HV CHC POPS NRN MTNS DOWN TO
LAURELS AND OVER 37/31/42 IN CTP PRCTE ZONES. REST OF FA MAY
MENTION AN ISOLATED TRW. VSBL SATL IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LO CLD
SHIELD FORMING OVR SERN PA WHICH HAS WORKED ACRS LANCSTER AREA. CLD
SHIELD SEEMS TO BE ASSCTD WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER SERLY FLO OFF OCEAN
UNDERCUTTING VERY MOIST LYR ABV. CIGS ARE RUNNING 1000 FT OR SO IN
LANCASTER. WITH STRONG SUMMER SUN... THINK THIS WILL MIX OUT BY EVE
BUT WILL COOLING TONIGHT APPEARS MORE CLDS AND OVC CONDITIONS WILL
DVLP AGAIN IN SUS VLLY. WUD HAVE BC MO CLDY AND FOGGY OVERNIGHT
THERE SINCE BNDRY LYR PROGS KEEP SIMILIAR LO-LVL FLO PATTERN TIL AT
LEAST 6Z. REST OF FA MUGGY OVERNIGHT SIMILIAR TO LAST NGT.

...LONGER TERM INFO...
NTRANS MODEL LOOPS SHOWS AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WV PATTERN ACRS NRN
U.S WITH TROF DIGGING IN THE WEST AND LARGE UPR RDG POPPING UP OVER
NERN U.S/GREAT LAKES AND SE CANADA. AT THE SAME TIME... WITH UPR
AIR RDG BUILDG SLIGHTLY UP STREAM FROM NE US. ...SFC RDG WILL BUILD
ACRS NY... PA AND NEW ENGLAND BY F48. THE COMBINATION OF THIS RDG
AND HURRICANE FELIX WORKG E ACRS VA-NC-SC AREA WILL DRAW A MORE
ERLY FLO OF AIR ACRS REGION IN THE LO-LVL/S STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO THU. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH NRLY COMPONENT
TO THIS FLO WILL DVLP. NGM SUGGEST FLO WILL BE NORTHEAST ENUF TO
PULL LWR HUMIDITIES SWRD INTO NRN 1/2 OF PA BY F48. ETA KEEPS DRYER
DWPTS TO THE N ON A MORE ERLY FLO WITH DWPT GRAD ACRS NY ST AT F48.
NGM GUIDANCE OUT TO 60 HRS SUGGESTS ONLY NRN PTNS OF PA GET INTO
THIS DRYER AIR MASS. LIKE NGM IN THIS SITUATION GIVEN PROPENSITY
FOR NE FLO E OF APPLCNS WHEN SFC RDG IS POSITIONED AS PROGGED AT
F48. OTHERWISE DAYS/NGTS WED THRU THU LOOK LIKE NO PRECIP. ONLY ONE
SMALL CONCERN IS A S/W THAT BOTH NGM/ETA CAPTURE WILL WORK INTO LWR
MI BY F36 AND WASH OUT ACRS NY STATE LATE WED NGT. MODELS HINT THIS
MAY SET OFF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE CONVECTIVE QPF FIELDS TO
THE W. WITH THICKNESSES RUNNING W-E WE MAY SEE A FEW DYING TRW WED
NGT NW PA. FOR NOW WUD LET LATER SHIFTS HANDL. NGM POPS SEEM HI WED
GIVEN LWR DWPTS IN NRN PA AND NERLY FLO. LIKE AVN POPS BETTER WHICH
ARE LO OUT TO 60 HRS.

THATS IT.

WILL TRY TO SEND ZONES TO PHL/PIT AND PHLADMCTP.... DEPENDS ON WHAT
TRW DOES TO OUR N AND W.
PFT/S OUT.

NICOSIA