Tornado Warning 54, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
945 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 1995

COOL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS REVISITED THE PANHANDLES BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WHICH STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF OKC TO NEAR SPS TO JUST NORTH OF
LBB TO ROW.  AMA 12 SOUNDING SHOWING MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW.
HOWEVER...WITH PRESSURE RISES TO THE NORTH AND PRESSURE FALLS TO
THE SOUTHWEST...DON/T THINK WE WILL BREAK OUT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

LOOKING ALOFT...700 MB LOW ALONG WITH STRONG WAA AHEAD OF IT (+11
AT AMA TO +04 AT DDC) IS FIRING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND HAS
STRONG MOIST INFLOW.

WATER VAPOR LOOPS ARE SHOWING THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND ANOTHER WAVE NEARING BAJA.  IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THERE
IS A COUPLING OF THE JETS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH WILL HELP
TO KEEP THE SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO MOVING SOUTHEAST.

PRESSURE RISES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALSO LENDS TO THE IDEA THAT THE
COLORADO WAVE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST.

THE WAY IN WHICH THIS AFFECTS THE FORECAST IS THIS...WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND NO REAL HOPE OF BREAKING
OUT OF THE CLOUDS...WILL UP POPS IN THE EAST WHERE CONVECTION IS
FIRING NOW AND WHERE NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.AMA...NONE.
.OK...NONE.

GOEHRING

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>026-110500-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 1995

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ABUNDANT IN THIS AREA.  AS LOW LEVEL WINDS CONVERGE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...AND SOME THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE.
ONCE FORMED...THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THOSE IN NORTHERN SECTIONS
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO BE CALLED BY LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

COCKRELL