Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
215 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 1995

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...
EVEN THOUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DID NOT RECEIVE VERY HEAVY RAIN
WITH THE LAST STORM (AOB .50)  THE FOCUS OF THE NEXT HEAVY RAIN
EVENT SEEMS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS PRESENT FROM SOUTHERN BAJA TO NEAR
ELP TO THE PANHANDLES.

CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO EXTREME
WESTERN TEXAS.  THIS IS ALL DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SHORT
WAVE...ALONG WITH BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET.  ALL
OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES BY SUNSET.

THEN...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEAR THE 4 CORNERS MOVES OVER THE
AREA TO GIVE US ANOTHER ROUND OF TRW OVERNIGHT.

STILL THINK THE MODELS MAY BE 3 TO 6 HOURS TO FAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM.  SO WILL FORECAST THE DRYLINE TO MOVE VERY LITTLE TONIGHT
AND THEN BRING IT ACROSS EARLY SATURDAY.

LOOKS LIKE A WINDY DAY FOR THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY AS DRYLINE MOVES
EAST AND LOW GATHERS STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MODEL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AND WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE
TO THEM.

.AMA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT TEXAS ZONES 1>20.
.OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT OKLAHOMA ZONES 1>3.

GOEHRING

NMZ007-013-020-021-OKZ001>003-TXZ001>026-270500-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 1995

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  THE EXTREME
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
FALLS INTO THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY.

THE MOISTURE SUPPLY IS PLENTIFUL BOTH FROM THE SURFACE DUE TO
PREVIOUS STORM ACTIVITY AND IN THE ATMOSPHERE.  SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE
WEST TEXAS.  A MINOR DISTURBANCE IN THE PATTERN COULD BE THE TRIGGER
FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SAME TIME... THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST.  ANY BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WHICH ALLOWS HEATING WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINS... STRONG STRONG WINDS... AND LARGE HAIL.  THE HEAVY RAIN COULD
RESULT IN FLOODING WHERE THE SOILS ARE ALREADY SOAKED.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
MAINLY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING AND FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

WYNNE