Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
240 PM CDT MON MAY 22 1995

CAP IS ERODING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AT AMA WAS 89 FROM THIS MORNING/S RUN.  WE
ARE 88 AS WE SPEAK AT 2PM CDT.  DRYLINE IS JUST EAST OF DHT AND IS
BETWEEN CVS AND AMA.  THE DRYLINE WILL PROBABLY PUSH EAST TO A GUY
TO JUST EAST OF AMA LINE BY SUNSET...BUT THEN IS WILL RETREAT BACK
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.

ETA SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE
NGM HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME.

UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO DIG WITH THE
HELP OF THE COUPLING OF THE JETS.  THE ETA DROPS THE LOW SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST FROM IT/S CURRENT POSITION OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE DUE TO THE
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT SURFACE...A VORT LOBE MOVING OVER THE
PANHANDLES AND A STRONG WIND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...CAN NOT SEE HOW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT EXPLODE TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE AN ALL DAY EVENT ON TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT
IN THE AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HELPING OUT WITH THE
INSTABILITY.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE EAST...ESPECAILLY THE
NORTHEAST.  THIS IS WHERE THE NGM COMES IN BETTER.  THE NGM HANDLES
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR BETTER AND IT HANDLES THE OVERDOING EVENT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BETTER.  WILL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN THIRD AND WILL LET LATTER SHIFTS WATCH HOW
THE SITUATION EVOLVES.

TAKING IN ACCOUNT THE ETA MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FROM THE
NORTH...WILL KEEP THE MUCH COOLER AIR OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  WILL NOT EXPECT THE FRONT THROUGH AMA UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT WILL
STICK CLOSER TO THE NGM NUMBERS FOR THE LATTER PERIODS.

SOME EARLY NUMBERS

DHT 58/75 48/59 46
AMA 61/81 54/63 50

.AMA...NONE.
.OK...NONE.

GOEHRING

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>026-230500-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT MON MAY 22 1995

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...MAINLY THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS...INCLUDING AMARILLO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLES.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE PANHANDLES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AS EARLY AS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAKE
PLACE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SPOTT"ERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES...SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

SCHNEIDER