Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
123 PM TUE JUL 4 1995

WBC...LIKED WRKZFP...CUD ADD 20% OR 30% FOR INTERIOR VA ZNS TMRW.

RDU...NO CHGS.

CWFWBC...NO CHGS.

CWFRDU...NO CHGS.

ON THE SHORT TERM...ADAP AND SFC PLOT NAILING AREA OF SCT PINPOINT SIZED
RW/TRW. SSW WNDS OVR WRN VA/NC CNVRGS WTH SSE FLOW OVR ERN NC/VA.  ADAP
ALSO NAILING BEST CNVRGNC OVR NRN VA AND CNTRL MD.  AXIS OF CNVCTN ALSO
NCLY ALIGNS WTH WHERE CLOUDY/SUNNY LN WAS THS MORN.  SAT PIX SHWS THE
INTERIOR CLOUDS CONT TO DSPT.  SAT PIX ALSO SHWS LTL S/WV OVR NRN GULF
MVG TWD NC/VA WHCH CUD ARRIVE TMRW.  SW FLOW INLAND TOOK ME A LTL
OFFGUARD BUT NOW THAT IT'S ESTABLISHED...SHUD CONT THRU THE DAY AND
AXIS OF CNVRGNC SHUD SLWLY SHFT INLAND.  ATMOSPHERE TOO UNIFORMLY
UNSTBL FOR SVR TRW...ALL RW/TRW FIGHTING EACH OTHER.

ON THE BROADER SCENE...12Z MDLS CAN'T BE USED IN THIS SITUATION...IN A
GENERAL SENSE...BNDRY LYR WND FLDS SUGG CONT CNVRGNC OF SW FLOW INLAND
AND ONSHOR FLOW ON COAST.  NGM HAS BEST HNDL ON Q-VEC FRCG BUT ETA AND
NGM AMBIGUOUS WTH LOW LVL MOISTURE CNVRGNC.  LOW LVL THETA-E RDG POKES
INTO CNTRL AND WRN VA WTH STG GRAD ALG THE COAST DUE TO MARITIME
INFLUENCE.  AVN DSN'T HV ABILITY TO RESOLVE LTL S/WVS AND NOTICED ETA
AND NGM HV A WK VORT LOBE SWINGING THRU CNTRL/WRN NC/VA WTH SHEAR AXIS
THRU ERN VA/NC TMRW.  SYS OVR NRN GULF CUD PROPAGATE TO NC/VA AND HELP
TRIGGER TRW TMRW.  ALL THIS ADDS UP TO SIMILAR CONDS TMRW AS TDY SO AT
LEAST SLGT CHC FOR TMRW EVEN THO GDNC LWRD POPS FOR TMRW. NGM
INTERESTING THO WTH FRLY DEEP N FLOW ABV H5 IN 24-48 HRS. CUD BE
PRECURSOR TO BACKDOOR IN XTND PDS.

CSTL WTRS FCSTS GUD PER CURRENT CONDS...TRENDS AND GDNC.

RIC 70/90/71/90  2333    ORF 71/88/71/90  2233
SBY 70/90/70/91  2223    ECG 72/88/72/89  2233

NS

VAZ074-075-076-042145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 1995

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN NECK AREA OF
VIRGINIA...

WESTMORELAND AND RICHMOND COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED SOME PONDING
OF WATER WAS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ON SECONDARY ROADS.  STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA...MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH.

WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND RAINFALL RATES CONTINUE TO BE AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
5PM.

RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN NECK AREA OF VIRGINIA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.  MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED NOT
TO DRIVE THROUGH DEEP WATER ON ROADWAYS.  FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS SO PEOPLE
ARE ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

REPORT ANY FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR
RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.  STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

NS

VAZ074-075-076-042145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 1995

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN NECK AREA OF
VIRGINIA...

WESTMORELAND AND RICHMOND COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED SOME PONDING
OF WATER WAS BEGINNING TO OCCUR ON SECONDARY ROADS.  STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA...MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 MPH.

WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND RAINFALL RATES CONTINUE TO BE AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
5PM.

RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN NECK AREA OF VIRGINIA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.  MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED NOT
TO DRIVE THROUGH DEEP WATER ON ROADWAYS.  FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS SO PEOPLE
ARE ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

REPORT ANY FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR
RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.  STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

NS

VAZ081-088-089-042215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
510 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 1995

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...

AT 500 PM WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE
LOCATED OVER WESTERN SUSSEX AND PRINCE GEORGE COUNTY NEAR THE
TOWNS OF STONY CREEK AND CARSON.

THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND WILL
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SURRY AND CHARLES CITY COUNTIES IN THE NEXT
HOUR

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY LIGHTNING...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
OF 1.5 INCHES IN THE PAST HOUR WERE NOTED NEAR STONY CREEK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS WITH THESE STORMS.

DS

VAZ081-088-089-042215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
510 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 1995

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...

AT 500 PM WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE
LOCATED OVER WESTERN SUSSEX AND PRINCE GEORGE COUNTY NEAR THE
TOWNS OF STONY CREEK AND CARSON.

THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND WILL
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SURRY AND CHARLES CITY COUNTIES IN THE NEXT
HOUR

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY LIGHTNING...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
OF 1.5b INCHES IN THE PAST HOUR WERE NOTED NEAR STONY CREEK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS WITH THESE STORMS.

DS

VAZ088-092-042330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
628 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 1995

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SUSSEX COUNTY AND WESTERN
SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUSSEX COUNTY UNTIL 7
PM...

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY UNTIL 7 PM...

AT 625 PM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER DREWRYVILLE IN SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY.

THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MILES AN HOUR.

PERSONS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FORWARD ANY STORM REPORTS TO LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-800-697-3373.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SMITH

VAZ088-092-042330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
628 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 1995

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SUSSEX COUNTY AND WESTERN
SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUSSEX COUNTY UNTIL 7
PM...

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY UNTIL 7 PM...

AT 625 PM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
OVER DREWRYVILLE IN SOUTHAMPTON COUNTY.

THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MILES AN HOUR.

PERSONS ARE ENCOURAGED TO FORWARD ANY STORM REPORTS TO LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-800-697-3373.

ST^AY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SMITH