Severe Thunderstorm Warning 450, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 AM CDT FRI NOV 4 1994

LOOKS LIKE VERY UNSETTLED WX WL CONT OVR ERN OK THRU 36-48 HRS
AS MDLS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING UPR TROF OUT ACRS THE
PLNS...TO JUST EAST OF FA BY LATE SAT.  CDFNT RMNS NEARLY STNRY
OVR XTRM NWRN PART OF FA THIS MRNG...AND WL BE SLOW IN MOVG ACRS
ERN OK THRU SAT.  AMS WL RMN VRY MOIST AND UNSTBL AHD OF THESE
FTRS...SO GOOD POTNTL FOR ADDITIONAL HVY RAINS.  MESONET DATA
SHOWS 70+ DEWPTS HV NOSED AS FAR NORTH AS TUL ATTM.  GIVEN AMT
OF RAIN THAT FELL OVR PARTS OF NE AND E-CNTL ZNS YSTDY AND LAST
EVNG...AND POTNTL FOR ADDITIONAL HVY RAIN...WL ISSUE FFA FOR MOST
OF AREA FOR TDA AND TNGT.  POTNTL ALSO RMNS FOR SVR WX...AND TSTM
OUTLK WL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR THE AREA.    COORD OUN AND LIT.

PRELIM NUMBERS:  TUL 76/51/58 885  BVO 64/44/52 884
                 MLC 78/60/65 785  IDB 78/62/68 786
...04...

.TUL...FLASH FLOOD WxATCH TDA AND TNGT ZNS 56>58 & 60>77.

OKZ054>077-041900-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 AM CST FRI NOV 4 1994

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
   FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM HENRYETTA TO MUSKOGEE TO STILLWELL.  ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
FROM NEAR BARTLESVILLE TO STILLWATER.  MOIST UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TODAY.

MEANWHILE...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL
APPROACH OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...WHILE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  STRONG
WIND SHEAR ABOVE THE GROUND MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS PRODUCED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY TOTAL
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN
FLOODING.  AS A RESULT OF THIS THREAT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CIVIL DEFENSE AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO
LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WATCHES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PW

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